@Lift there's nothing left for me to add today.

@blotunga Hope you get better ASAP! Renal crisis sounds bad.

It's not intended as mocking you, it's just one of the few things that make the game a bit more playful and less stressful for me. That's why I have reiterated a few times that it shouldn't been taken as AI or buddying you or whatever. Don't give me credit (or take it away) for it. I also hope you're not taking offense or anything, but if it annoys you let me know and I'll stop.


Not a fan of that.


I'll finish work in about an hour. If you think we still have some time, please wait a bit longer. I wanted to go back and ISO RFG to make up my mind about joining. His claim is pretty disappointing though, so if you don't think we can afford waiting longer go ahead and do it.

Sorry, dedo. I'm not going to risk it. I'm here now and have to leave for the evening in a bit. I doubt that your ISO would change today's lynch and I'm not going to risk a no-lynch.

So:
unvote JoeSapphire
vote RedFireGaming

Let's see that flip.

what is it you mean when you say 'silly implications'?

Which reminds me:


@ RWarehall I wrote this before, but didn't get a reply, I know there was a lot to respond to and you might have missed it, but I'm interested in your response:

the word 'misread' here interests me - what are you refering to?

Just a short notice from my mobile while waiting for the movie to start:
@dedo I would be interested in that ISO, even if it doesn't change anything anymore. If you can get it done before we see the flip, it might give us something to analyse on D3.
After the flip it becomes mind of pointless, of course. It would be biased then.

Yeah, yeah, I didn't really expect it to change anything. I just wanted to be able to take a more solid stance on the matter. Mostly to get it on the record.

A lynch has happened, it will be about 40 minutes or so before I end the day. Talk may continue until then.

not at all! I didn't mean mock-flattery as in you're mocking me, but as in just that it's not genuine. As in mock-turtles. Don't stop.

anyway, shush the lynch is about to start.

Morning comes and everyone comes back to the meeting spot to get ready for another day of hunting. After the previous night of finding someone dead a head count is done and it seems everyone is there. Everyone sits down to have breakfast getting ready to head out and hunt some more.

At about the time everyone has finished the meal and are getting ready to head out for another day of hunting Sam stands up "Great job everyone" says Sam "I knew with this crew we would be safe during the night. Let's get ready to find these Kitsune and stop anyone else from dying. We are family and these monsters must be stopped, you all know what to do"

The group gathers their gear and disperse to begin the hunt

It is now morning and posting is allowed

OK, a quick post because I'm about to leave for some trip.

- The good news is that RFG turned out to be a serial killer
- also I fixed my laptop charger.
- The bad news is that RFG is a serial killer, so nothing can be discerned about any scumbuddy whatsoever.

In fact, if it weren't for his flip, we'd be completely clueless about who we're up against, and stayed on the assumption that there is just a mafia team. For all we know, it could be another serial killer at large, or a scumteam of two.

Current lineup:
- Pooka
- Lifthrasil
- Agent
- blotunga
- Joe
- RWarehall
- dedoporno

Worst case scenario: two scum and five townies, but at least today isn't MyLo (unless a vigilante kills a townie). There's got to be some protective role or roleblocker at work. Best case would be one scum and six townies, but we can't afford that luxury.

Some people said if RFG flipped scum, it might reflect positively on Joe, but I doubt that is the case now as RFG did flip scum, but as SK and not as part of a team...

good Morning everyone!

Well.

On the face of it it looks like we've got two blocked kills, but there are several possibilties.


If the mafias tried to kill RedFire last night, or tried to kill someone else and got blocked, then they'd know there was another killing role - would they assume it was a serial killer over a vigilante?
I was just thinking about how I town-read Carr because he town-read me and I couldn't think why he would do it, and I thought MAYBE mafia reckoned Joe wasn't a serial-killer and RedFire was... no but even then. Carr would have voted me to protect himself, as he had the second-most votes at the time, or even if he didn't want to vote me he wouldn't have been so certain about town-reading me, he should be leaving his options open shouldn't he?

contrarywise, I was just reading lift's post where he said about RedFire forgetting whether he was voting for Lifthrasil and thought he was voting for Joe" and I thought 'nice catch lift, town points for you' but then I thought 'NO! a mafia suspecting a serial killer might also be looking for scum tells, so no no no I must retract those town points'. His point about mafia-Joe-means-RedFire-isn't-mafia still makes sense and doesn't come from a scummy mentality though, so he gets a town point back.

We're NOT, now, at mislynch-and-lose, so that's nice. Though everything else pooka presupposed came true...

Pooka's end-of-Day-two had me thinking about it a lot during the night, and he's leapt to top of my scumlist: it's pretty much all in this post:

1 - as dedo pointed out, he presupposes dedo and hisself will survive the night
2 - "I want to believe these parlor tricks are a scum's tactics, but at the same time I have enough circumstancial evidence (an entire Secret Hitler game!) that proves otherwise." - the logic seems backwards. He wants to think I'm scum, but his evidence seems to suggest otherwise, so he is up for lynching me.
3 - He didn't notice that I was town-reading him for most of the game. I think someone who's looking for clues wpuld pick up on this. As I said already, dedo (compliments aside) was reacting to my reads and questions at face value, expressing little suspicion of me for much of the game, and carr had an easy chance to join my wagon but didn't take it. Both these things seemed very significant to me, because I know that they have very little to gain from pretending to town-read me. (yeah Everybody Look At Joe He's So Friggin Town whatever)
4 - In the last paragraph he presupposes RedFire wasn't going to flip mafia. This is maybe most damning of all seeing as he's voting for the guy.


I just looked for pooka's response when I mentioned the assuming-RedFire's-not-mafia ( "But it is true that my post about MyLo being tomorrow is missing something: I didn't say that this would be assuming the worst case scenario, a.k.a. RFG is a mislynch." if you're interested) and seen where he said "All I can say is, the perks of playing forum mafia, on the GOG forums, from mobile. " and it kinda took the wind out of my sails a bit... playing from a mobile makes things more difficult and that might cause him to overlook things... hm.

Pooka - you promised us some Isolated Reads - give them to us :)

And I've just seen that Pooka wrote a message while I was faffing with this one. He says 'Look At Me I've Got No Idea What The Mafia Team Looks Like; Is It One Person, Is It TWO? I Just Don't Know!'. I think this is the sort of thing Pooka usually fixates on though so maybe it's not alignment indicative.

Pooka - is game-setup-mechanics something you usually fixate on? And don't forget those reads!

Does that include the part where I "presupposed" RFG wasn't scum?

Well......

That answers why all your points happened. But I'd like to add one more bit to 1. As one of you said, if one of myself or dedo dies it's a moot point; either the uneasiness he harbors is gone or he himself is gone...so naturally the only situation where it makes sense for him to talk about his issues is a Day where both of us are alive. So even if I forgot to say "assuming we make it alive," does it really need to be said?

I'll do them about tomorrow IRL.

Yes. But don't you feel you're missing the point of my post? My point is: surprise, we've got a serial killer but the game isn't over, now there may STILL be a mafia team of two. If a townie was killed, I would have worried about MyLo. You can see it when one of my paragraphs begin with "Worst case scenario." Also you forgot the part where I say "oh, Joe Town if RFG scum? pffft."

I have stuff to share but I want to read Pooka's and Joe's posts first. Please wait for me before posting.

OK, here goes.

RFG's flip was a bit unexpected (you'll see why below) but it's still a good result.


Claim time as I have a decent amount of information to share. I'll do it in chronological order.

I'm one shot Town Jailkeeper. One N1 I tried to jail RFG since I thought he was a decent choice - he might have been a good Town WIFOM kill or if he was Pooka's buddy like I initially thought he might be I doubted Pooka was going to perform the kill (and I was hoping someone would Cop him) so I went for his supposed teammate. Turns out that was a good choice but I did failed since my action was prevented by someone. Back then I thought that meant we had a 2 scum team - one who blocked me and another who performed the kill.

The game is still going so we have at least one more anti-Town player among us. We only had one NK on N1 and from my own knowledge I think it's likely that kill was RFG's. The question is if the other kill was performed and prevented in another way or if it's only one multi-skilled scum who decided to block me instead of killing. Of course I may have been blocked by a Town PR but that would mean we had 2 blocking roles (mine and whomever blocked me) and another way of preventing the second kill. I'm more inclined to believe it's one multi-skilled scum who chose not to kill but to block. I guess there are other possibilities but these come to me at first glance.

Going into N2 - I again thought of blocking Pooka to prevent the kill (if he is scum like I thought he might be) but ultimately decided to go for another player who was a possible target for a scum NK but could also be well-hidden scum himself. The problem is the Jailkeeper cuts any and all access of and to the player which means we don't know if he was saved or prevented from performing the kill.

I'm hesitant about revealing his name just yet, I'd like to think a bit more and hear what others think about it, too. I assume that what I said might make sense to some of you so think for yourselves first before revealing any more additional information. We should try to do whatever we can with what we have right now and think twice before revealing more.

I'm ready for questions now. AMA.