Vote: Sage
where you at sage?

@HSL Sorry, no. Not as as reference to something, but as something to be referenced. I just know realized that in English you reference a reference.

@Krypsyn I didn't actually think you would answer. In some ways, it was a rhetorical question.

I will be posting more tomorrow.

adalia flipping scum would cast a bad light on anyone in favor of lynching flubs D1 ie. you, hsl, dedo, krypsyn, zfr. chances the other scum team is in there somewhere isn't too far fetched in my assessment of the situation and as I explained before scum would not want to start killing off other scum until there is alot less town around. So I assume it makes perfect sense for scum to rather not risk adalia or hsl flipping scum, to not make lynching for example me or leonard (who on reread also didn't buy lynching flubs yesterday was a good Idea and voted adalia for it aswell and hsl later) less probable today and if correct (yes this is still assuming adalia, hsl, you are scum ) would rather induce hitting scum today (which again is not something scum wants)
so no from scums perspective it this not at all a win-win.

I can get behind that, too.
(also the chance of either flubs or trent being scum is way less than 50%. it's exactly 1 in n (where n is the number of players scum assumed to be vanilla townie) so more around 20% ... assuming that hunter flipped because of a failed recruit shows that scum were looking at a lot more people than just trent or flubs

unvote adalia
vote Bookwyrm

Absolute bollox.
So if I flip scum everything I suggest or support suddenly becomes a bad idea? I don't think anyone else who was willing to vote flub yesterday would look bad in that situation, 6 people voted him yesterday so even if you assume all the scum did then at least two town did as well. Which means there are town that see that it was the right move we should have took yesterday.

As for scum not wanting to kill each other early, I think you'll find I suggested that might be the case, so if I'm scum that must be wrong and a bad idea too, no?

Probably still moving or dealing with the follow-ups to that. That said, I also hope she'll be back to us sooner rather than later.

@adalia, what is your take on Wyrm's wagon? Same question to Krypsyn and Leonard.

Everyone on it is scum obviously.

That might be true for an original 2 person scum team, but a team with 1 scum left facing a 3 person scum team might want to finish some of them off before going for for town.
A 1 scum (with 1 recruit possibility) facing 8 townies is hard but doable. A 1 scum team (with no recruiting; townies are dead) facing 3-4 scum team is a definite loss.

For your assumption to work (Adalia was Hunter's partner; but still went for the conversion):
_Adalia had to be sure that HSL was the rival scum team (how?).
_Adalia loved the other scum team so much (haha) and was worried that his flip would reveal them (dubious), that he would rather sacrifice his well hidden partner than let that happen.
_And all that on top of the fact that if his partner dies he'd be left alone vs not only townies but a scum team which, according to this theory, he just helped strengthen.

No.

(adalia^ HSL names included for illustrative purposes only in the above example)

There is a good chance adalia (or HSL) is scum. And I'd be willing to even accept that adalia (or HSL) is a mutant. But if he (or HSL) is a mutant, then the events of the night transpired in a different way (Hunter was NK'ed or recruited then Nk'ed...)

Or adalia and Hunter are the worst mafia players ever and didn't think it through.

Until I see anything actually scummy from Wyrm (no idea why he is being voted particularly) I won't be voting him.
While his statistics on flub and trent's chances of being scum are certainly dubious (and wrong) it's led by a bunch of people I suspect to be scum or possibly converted.

I think mchack is just trying to push any wagon to try and keep himself off the table today.

Okay, huh, yep. In that order.

Because Statistics is an invaluable branch of hard science that has never, will never, and can never be misused to say or imply anything that is incorrect.

The correct question to ask about Post 773 would have been "Did you manage to type that with a straight face?"
The answer would have been "No. No I did not."

Good thing I didn't pull a coin out of my pocket, or I'd be dead already.

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I figure Trent and Flub have a higher than average chance of being converted simply because they have put on the appearance of being Town Vanilla. Why aim in the dark when you've got not one, but TWO candidates right there, ripe for the WIFOM pickings?

Perhaps that's what happened to Hunter. He picked one of them, and they were actually scum. Nothing like convincing the opposing scum team to suicide on you. Keeps them from growing, remove one of their conversions, and possibly help town eliminate them the following Day while you focus on growing.

Pretty sure that's at least 33.3(3)% incorrect.


Huh?


A bit off-of-topic: I'm sick and it doesn't seem to get better. I'm around but every now and again I fall asleep so I might not be always on.

I'm sure you didn't _only_ have bad ideas (would have to ISO to find out for sure though ;P
anyway while it does not make everyone who followd your idea yesterday to lynch flub for being a vanilla townie automatically scum if you indeed flip scum, it would telling where the idea stemmed from (scum in that case).

Also there were various reasons people supported your idea for: krypsyn for instance seemed mostly in it for the fast lynch less talk thing (to protect masons) (though I'm still waiting for him to answer why he votes flubs now), not so much for the lynch all we are reasonably sure that they're vanilla to leave less room for conversion thing (which is very scummy to my mind, because it rather works to out masons, too and kills townies) or others who believed your claim that flubs wouldn't be working for towns win condition anymore anyhow (which is again different from killing flubs for just being believed vanilla town) etc.
Hence various commitment to your Ideas would make the reflection of your flipping scum also differentuated.

In that same vein you flipping town would cast a bad light on me (or wouldn't it it in your logic? would everyone go oh well we lynched adalia because mchack made a big fuss all the time and now he's flipped town. ah nevermind let's not look at mchack now. adalias flip doesn't reflect on others, he said so himself)

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uhm. they were both 2 person scum teams in the situation I'm talking about. this decision I was musing about (who goes for the conversion shot) was taking place N1 with two teams each 2 persons. I don't see how you comment fits what I said.

1. not sure. but assume scum in: HSL or Bookwyrm or Dedo or Krypsyn or even You (By helping each other in discussion and telling everyone they will not be voting each other. Which is rather easy to pick up really. I've picked up on it, and that means it's obvious)
2. see above that decision was taken at N1 two scum teams with 2 people each. no reason to fight each other yet.
3. I'm sure it's bad if your scumbuddy dies, but taking the conversion shot, I think means one is reasonably sure it will not go wrong because of that consequence.
also you don't do the conversion shot to strengthen your rival team but to strengthen your own. if going wrong no reason to hurt the other team aswell, I assume since a dead townie is still better than a dead scum for them because the biggest enemy is still town (we are 7-8)

yes.

Yes I also think there is a good chance adalia and Hsl (and bookwyrm) are scum and I really don't care which team they belong to. I just want a scum flip today. that's all I aspire to. You can help, you know. a scum flip could be just a few votes away.

Indeed. I can understand Okay and yep. But huh?

We are talking about a hypothetical situation where the scum team is considering whom to send in case that their conversion fails and there is one 1 scum left on their team.

I can see how that discussion went:
Adalia: I think I should go in case the conversion fails. You're well hidden and no one suspects you.
Hunter: No! If you go and the conversion fails then not only you'll be putting the other scum team in bad light, you could also be putting innocent townies in suspicion.
Adalia: By golly, you're right! You go instead. If you fail, we'll be in deep shit, but at least we'll know the other scum team is safe and no harm comes their way.
Hunter: Hooray! Hooray!

My reaction to trentonlf voting for Bookwyrm627: Okay, I can see it.
My reaction to flubbucket voting for Bookwyrm627: Huh? I don't get it.
My reaction to mchack voting for Bookwyem627: Yep. In-line with expectations.