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General discussionForum Mafia #32: Booze, Blood and Bullets: The Prohibition(1735 posts)(1735 posts)
(1735 posts)
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This is my favourite topic
Posted November 21, 2015
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adaliabooks: 1) Seriously Hyper, you're being purposely dense here. If I was scum and me team had a Janitor, why the hell would we think yogs was a PGO? How can scum (having a Janitor, which is pretty clear giving JMich's non flip) not know that yogs (assuming he isn't one of them) is the Coroner?

2) Me trying to pressure yogs into claiming makes no sense. If scum wanted him dead, they would have killed him. They will have already known from his hints and their own roles what his role is. They wouldn't have needed to push him to claim.

3) As of now, currently not so confident of my read of him being town as his latest twists and turns are looking more like his convoluted scum plots.

4) I just assumed (incorrectly as it turned out) that yogs might have received the flip info immediately and expected it might be shared. Or at the very least, that with the extra evidence provided by JMich not flipping, he would finish the claim he started day 1. I don't know about anyone else, but to me that would be the town thing to do. The fact he hasn't is making him slip down my scale of town players.
1) I made a similar observation somewhere late in D1. It's why I tend to think that, if wyrm is scum, he's probably not the janitor. Though I have him neutral atm anyway.

Though one could note that even in that hypothetical scum team w/janitor might bank on yogs more likely being coroner. But they couldn't entirely rule out that just by dumb luck he was PGO and someone else was coroner. Or maybe no one is coroner. I agree it's somewhat unlikely, but a scum team that's already behind might not want to risk it either. And the bigger issue is...

2) They might have had a good sense of what his role was, might not, but "they would have killed him" is awfully certain. Surely you don't believe that quite so forcefully. He was the only person who even soft claimed, so...perhaps more likely to draw protection? Scum were behind and presumably needed a high percentage play more than anything. WIFOM yada yada.

3) I reorganized your post to put 3/4 together since they're thematic. If you think that's somehow misconstruing, by all means, feel free to point it out. Anyway, trying to figure out what yogs is doing (I still don't know exactly), it's occurred to me that, on top of everything else I assumed D1, for him to be scum, either:

a) scum have daychat, or
b) he's the luckiest SOB on the planet, or
c) he is...Godfather janitor, which makes really no sense at all aside from being unbalanced.

I'll let you play with why that is. Part of it relies on something you yourself said D1. Not ruling it out that he's pulling (another) one over on us, but for now...even if he gives me an unhappy tingle, I'm not ready to go back to paranoiaville since it continues to require increasing assumptions rather than fewer.

4) While parts of what you say here is fine, I think you're soft-selling the asking a bit.

And the bigger problem to me is that, at least most of the field seems to agree we wouldn't have expected a result on his action til D3 (am I wrong on that?), and despite those arguments you still seem to be standing on an interpretation gained from a single game rather than what at least appears to be the more common setup.

Is there a coroner in the game? I don't know. Does said coroner get results instantly? Eh, possible but I doubt it. You're certainly welcome to your own theory on how the role <might> work in this game, but I'm not wild that you're using that theory as the basis for your suspicion on D2. From a vet, that seems more like an intent to distract than a desire to help.

Didn't refresh, mea culpa.
Posted November 21, 2015
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yogsloth: If you can't see the writing in the potato salad by this point, you're not going to see it no matter how long you sit there with your thumb in your ass.
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adaliabooks: I found it.
"Literal LOL"

Well played, and thanks for having a sense of humor through it all! Leave me an entertaining rant in the Scumchat for me to read later, will you? :)
Posted November 21, 2015
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adaliabooks: I refer you to rule 11 of the OP: Emphasis added.
We all know being prodded makes you more likely to die. Scum may know more about how or why, but we all know it's a fact. It's there in the rules.

I've already listed my reasons why I believe HijacK was more likely to be jailed / protected by town than scum, though Leonard claiming the action muddies the waters a bit now. Yes, it could all be a set up... but at the time I said that Leonard was in no danger of being lynched. So why would I be setting up a save for him?
That's pretty long range thinking, particularly from someone who seemed in danger of being lynched themselves.
I don't really know what to say about this other than it's not the case...
I totally missed that in the OP, so strike that theory. Sorry about that.

Well damn it, now I don't know what to think again :(

Unvote Leonard
Posted November 21, 2015
(Throws arms in air)

(Pushes chair over)

(Storms out of room)
Posted November 21, 2015
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bler144: 2) They might have had a good sense of what his role was, might not, but "they would have killed him" is awfully certain. Surely you don't believe that quite so forcefully. He was the only person who even soft claimed, so...perhaps more likely to draw protection? Scum were behind and presumably needed a high percentage play more than anything. WIFOM yada yada.
That's not actually what I said. I said if they wanted him dead (if they thought him so important to remove) they would have killed him. I don't see scum trying to set him up for a lynch after no one was interested day 1.
Yes, they may have chosen not to if they thought he could be protected but in my experience if you really need someone out of the way you take that risk (I've been scum enough times now to know what I'm talking about)

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bler144: And the bigger problem to me is that, at least most of the field seems to agree we wouldn't have expected a result on his action til D3 (am I wrong on that?), and despite those arguments you still seem to be standing on an interpretation gained from a single game rather than what at least appears to be the more common setup.

Is there a coroner in the game? I don't know. Does said coroner get results instantly? Eh, possible but I doubt it. You're certainly welcome to your own theory on how the role <might> work in this game, but I'm not wild that you're using that theory as the basis for your suspicion on D2. From a vet, that seems more like an intent to distract than a desire to help.
No, I fully expect he won't have a result. I realise that was a misconception. But I think considering the soft claim he made and the info now available the town thing to do would be to confirm his role.
He's gone on to hint of some knowledge of flips not being correct, which again supports him being Coroner but he still won't claim.
Posted November 21, 2015
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bler144: I'm curious if yogs remembers...
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dedoporno: I can't remember when that was and under what circumstances ...
You wouldn't. That section was me talking to him directly. Probably should have left it out, but I was curious what he'd say. Let's just say it was a deliberate attempt on his part to deceive for nothing more than his own amusement, and he was quite convincing.

That said, as noted I'm taking my paranoia meds now, so I'm not on his wagon. At least for D2, he's town...he's town....he's town.

As they say, fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice OMGHETOTALLYWOULD. But if he's pulls this off as scum, frankly, he probably does deserve to win. Though the last time I said that, he did. Sigh.

But in this instance it just takes too many assumptions at this point to think he's scum, and that's the key for me for now.

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dedoporno: Didn't he even manage to get off your radar, too? Anyway, the threat was noteworthy. I wonder what would happen if Wyrm got off and Leonard actually flips town...
Well, he never left my top 3 (wyrm was the one who fell back to neutral), but I would agree that all the focus on adalia/Leonard plus everything else swirling around let him slide into the background a bit in terms of "Why I'd been on him in the first place." A refresher was a good reminder why I'd had him over Leonard, despite Leonard's potential flags.

Very curious to see what he says when he rejoins us.

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dedoporno: Well, pretty much everyone and their cat is going at him, so not that shocking.
Hopefully he doesn't have allergies, then.

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dedoporno: For the same reason Leonard's should have been still on flub?
I don't follow.

Leonard isn't voting anyone right now, and despite pressure hasn't been particularly forthcoming about who he would vote right now. That's at least a bit of a problem. It's similar to Flub, in that neither is making much of a case for where their vote is/isn't now, but not quite the same.

Now, his role claim is interesting since it at least seems to be confirmed, but doesn't actually clear him. Might be town, might not. Can be WIFOMed. But unless someone's actually going to make a good case for 2 scum teams as a high probability, it doesn't really change my opinion on priority.

The upside of lynching Leonard now is that worst case we do learn something from his flip if he flips town, but wagon still perhaps not, unless there's a sudden rush to hammer. But it's at the cost of a role we have fairly good confirmation does exist. So I'm not wild about it since there are alternatives, both for today's vote, and perhaps for clearing/condemning him.

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bler144: "they would have killed him" is awfully certain.
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adaliabooks: That's not actually what I said. I said if they wanted him dead (if they thought him so important to remove) they would have killed him.
Holy hair-splitting, Batman.

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adaliabooks: No, I fully expect he won't have a result. I realise that was a misconception. But I think considering the soft claim he made and the info now available the town thing to do would be to confirm his role.
He's gone on to hint of some knowledge of flips not being correct, which again supports him being Coroner but he still won't claim.
I'm leaning towards expecting him to claim tomorrow. If he has something that proves two factions, it would be good to hear that sooner.

Otherwise I'm at least inclined to trust his judgment, since I don't know what he knows.
Posted November 21, 2015
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trentonlf: Here's some food for thought. Do you think there's anyway scum get a bonus of some sort to kill someone who has been prodded? adalibooks says "I think you're missing an important point. What if HijacK wasn't blocked, but Jailed? If someone thought he was more likely to die then they could have jailed him to protect him, which makes perfect sense." To me it sounds like he knows whoever was being prodded had a higher chance to die.

If scum have a jailer they could easily set it up to protect the prodded person by jailing them and then claim town jailer because they feared for his life. adaliabooks hints at this possibility and then Leonard announces it. Perfect reason for adaliabooks to remove his vote from Leonard and try and look like town doing it and then it gives doubt about Leonard being scum.

This is a far out theory, but something is off about those two.
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trentonlf: I totally missed that in the OP, so strike that theory. Sorry about that.

Well damn it, now I don't know what to think again :(

Unvote Leonard
A shame adaliabooks convinced you so easily, becomes there may indeed be something in this adaliabooks - HijacK - Leoanrd03 triangle, even though they all make a great effort to present it as all being very town-like behaviour with no association among them.

See how he's still trying to spin it [emphasis added]:
My point about HijacK is that scum are not going to protect a target who has been specified by the mod to be easier to kill, without claiming to have done so. What's the point in pretending to be town if no one knows?
Therefore, if you assume HijacK was jailed for protection, the fact no one has claimed it leans more towards it being an action by town rather than scum trying to appear town.
The only one here assuming that HijacK was jailed to be protected is adaliabooks. He argues again that it was a Jailer, and conveniently focuses on the protective side of the role, as that paints all involved parties in a positive light. But let's look at the other side of the coin - if HijacK's scum, and easier to kill after having been prodded as per rule #11, then a scum-buddy Jailer would protect him from dying if anyone targeted him. In this case, scum would not come to claim anything, as the purpose would not have been to appear town, just to save their scum-buddy's skin.

Now, Leonard03 conveniently claimed Town Jailer, and Hijack as the one that he jailed. He's a bit more careful though, and presents both sides of the action, and therefore he must be ignorant of HijacK's alignment.

And then there's HijacK, who said something quite interesting earlier today in his post #849:
While I must say, I don't see him as scum, I am suspicious of him, but I'm not inclined to vote, even if the hammer place is open. [...] Aaaaaannndddd while the case made against Leonard is strong, people who voted barely outlined their reasons, and those who made the strong cases are not voting.
So, he criticises everyone on Leonard03's case, and that's supposed to explain why he's not interested in voting him, not even if he had the chance to hammer him? That must be a first.

I don't know about others, but it all feels kind of orchestrated, with arguments flying around to make us see each of them in a positive light, but with no connection among them.
I may be wrong, but that's how it reads to me.



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adaliabooks: [...]

No, I fully expect he won't have a result. I realise that was a misconception. But I think considering the soft claim he made and the info now available the town thing to do would be to confirm his role.
He's gone on to hint of some knowledge of flips not being correct, which again supports him being Coroner but he still won't claim.
So, the townie thing is for the Coroner to come forward before he has something useful to report, just to make sure that he gets Nk-ed N2, before he gets the chance to do his job? Gotcha.

But agreed - you know how to say your words as scum and maintain your posture, I can see the progress you've made since a couple of games ago.


Now I see that Leonard03 was kind enough to not change his way, so has left me a long post to go over, and adaliabooks is due for a reply too. I'm not sure if I'll get to it now, as I ended up with a headache from all that re-reading I've done.


For the moment, I'd like to say that I also find cristigale a bit off. Besides the lurking, she's been posting the same way she did when she was mafia in CSPVG's game, and managed to fly under the radar of all of us almost until the very end.

If you go over her posts, it's mostly rehashing what has been said, put her own touch on it, then cast a vote.

I know she's not on the menu Today, and most will probably not agree with me (except perhaps Krypsyn), but wanted to put my observations and take on her out there.


I'd also like to say that this game has been very entertaining so far.
Posted November 21, 2015
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HypersomniacLive: A.
The two that have felt off to me since the end of the Day 1 are Leonard and adaliabooks, that's why I placed my vote on adaliabooks at the start of the day. I have the feeling they are both scum putting up a charade of some sort, but Hijack and cristi have not pinged anything for me yet.

Whatever is going on is twisted, it has poor yogs in a tizzy for sure LOL

Of the two I find adaliabooks to be the scummier, and if he does flip scum I'm pretty sure Leonard is too.

Vote adaliabooks
Posted November 21, 2015
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yogsloth: You gonna vote my guy?
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Krypsyn: It's your turn.
To secure a lynch, would you be willing to get my guy Today, and then your guy Tomorrow?


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Ixamyakxim: Unvote P1na
Vote yogsloth
Would you be willing to… wait, who am I asking? Nevermind.

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HypersomniacLive: But agreed - you know how to say your words as scum and maintain your posture, I can see the progress you've made since a couple of games ago.
Would you be willing to vote for anybody at anytime before the sun goes Supernova? Sometime in the next few billion years?

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flubbucket: Same as it was earlier.

Should I call you when things change??
Would you be willing to even remotely pay attention?
Posted November 21, 2015
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trentonlf: [...] but [...] cristi have not pinged anything for me yet. [...]
That's probably because you got Nked on N1 in that game. ;-P
If you go and reread her posts you'll see what I mean.

And now I see that I made a huge typo in my post #923 - that "becomes" should read "because".



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yogsloth: [...] Would you be willing to vote for anybody at anytime before the sun goes Supernova? Sometime in the next few billion years? [...]
Think I'm going to pull a Leonard03 on you now:
But until then I'm keeping my options open.
Posted November 21, 2015
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HypersomniacLive: A shame adaliabooks convinced you so easily, becomes there may indeed be something in this adaliabooks - HijacK - Leoanrd03 triangle, even though they all make a great effort to present it as all being very town-like behaviour with no association among them.
Some good points. Though personally Hijack isn't ringing anything for me, but that is, of course, purely a gut read. The thing that makes me skeptical is what follows when you actually start filling that theory out in practice.

So we're really talking P1na-adalia-hijack-leonard, right? You aren't proposing two scum teams? Or perhaps more importantly, why the above team would suspect a second team to protect itself N1 over any other end? Like, say, potentially blocking a cop/doctor/tracker who might be on Leonard/adalia for the D1 finish?

P1na's out, so that leaves adalia-leonard-hijack, right? So adalia does the kill and false-claims a block that he knows exists, or he's strongman and an outsider blocked him.

But again, why would scum Leonard need to protect scum Hijack? In this hypothetical do they assume a second scum team, and if so, why? Or do they assume a vig is going to hit Hijack just because he was vulnerable? I didn't perceive him being on anyone's radar, and it's not exactly a town play just to hit the "vulnerable" guy because he gives good odds.

I don't see the motive. Now, covering him to appear more beneficial? Sure. But that applies regardless of Hijack's alignment. In this scenario one could even postulate no blockers at all!

The real problem with the theory would seem to be that adalia/Leonard were both pretty visible D1. Why draw attention to the 4th, seemingly well-hidden, team member at all? Regardless of how this plays out, if Leonard does flip scum everyone is going to remember who he guarded N1, the same way we remembered dedo guarding yogs in Vitek's game.

Is it possible to make P1na-adalia-Leonard-Hijack work in theory?...yeah, I guess. But I'm not feeling it, personally. Can I sell you on a P1na-adalia-Leonard-Ix theory?

I re-read Cristi N1 because of the perception she was lurking. But I didn't come away with anything. Then again, I didn't see Leonard's posts quite as darkly as you did either, so perhaps I'm either not as detail-oriented, or just less paranoid. ;)

Curious if you've read Ix yet. Maybe that will be the one I find darker than you.
Posted November 21, 2015
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yogsloth: To secure a lynch, would you be willing to get my guy Today, and then your guy Tomorrow?
Obvious answer is obvious.

No Lynch isn't an option.
Posted November 21, 2015
Are we really not going to lynch leonard?

How amazing, we stumbled on the exact single role that's already been confirmed, on Day 2. Not only that, he actually jailed Hijack for the exact same reason that several people have already speculated! The only claim easier would have been to go with coroner, then "Whoops, I was jailed *tee hee*"

And we have people in here who immediately backed off his wagon / won't vote for him, yet still claim he's one of their top scum candidates - it's like no one is even seriously entertaining that his claim is legit and yet we still won't lynch him???
Posted November 21, 2015
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Ixamyakxim: Are we really not going to lynch leonard?
Yes we are. But probably tomorrow.

Unvote Leonard03

Vote adaliabooks
Posted November 21, 2015
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Ixamyakxim: Are we really not going to lynch leonard?

How amazing, we stumbled on the exact single role that's already been confirmed, on Day 2. Not only that, he actually jailed Hijack for the exact same reason that several people have already speculated! The only claim easier would have been to go with coroner, then "Whoops, I was jailed *tee hee*"

And we have people in here who immediately backed off his wagon / won't vote for him, yet still claim he's one of their top scum candidates - it's like no one is even seriously entertaining that his claim is legit and yet we still won't lynch him???
For me it smells like a setup, adaliabooks tossed the role of a jailer protecting Hijack out there and that's why Leonard claimed it. If we lynch adaliabooks and he flips scum I'm almost certain Leonard is scum too, but if there is the chance that Leonard is really the town Jailer I don't want to lynch him. The flip of adaliabooks will tell us a lot.
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This is my favourite topic
Community
General discussionForum Mafia #32: Booze, Blood and Bullets: The Prohibition(1735 posts)(1735 posts)
(1735 posts)