https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2021/05/epic-thinks-egs-could-make-up-35-50-of-the-pc-gaming-market-by-2024/ I think EGS is probably being very overly optimistic with those projections. I hope they come true though.

What do you think?

Does EGS actually have a chance to gain that much market share, that quickly?

They still offer no reason to use their client other than exclusives and free games. If they want to reach those heights they need a reason to choose Epic over Steam or GOG, which they don't have as far as I can tell.

Given the financials that have been revealed, I can't see this happening - especially if they continue to be as anti-consumer as they currently are. However, after seeing how Epic will even directly abuse/threaten other companies (like Sony, Microsoft, and even Apple themselves prior to the lawsuit) in order to gain an advantage, I don't see how Epic can have that many corporate friends at this point which will further hinder their progress in the market.

To be perfectly honest, I wish that Sweeney would have decided to "waste" this EGS/lawsuit money on financing medical research or something instead of shoveling cash on this dumpster fire. It would have aligned much more with his altruistic propaganda that he's spewing.

I think I can fly...

Given the rise of PC gaming worldwide since the start of the pandemic, the rapidly growing market in China and of course that whole Tencent / Epic thing... they may not be entirely wrong.

Edit: haven't bothered with the article, just stating I don't see it as entirely unrealistic given the facts I've listed.

I'm very skeptical, for the reason StingingVelvet said. Maybe EGS works out something like their own Geforce Now? I dunno. I think most PC gamers are happy with Steam and/or too entrenched in it - "all my games in one place" / Convenience Is King. GOG at like %1-2 (edit: I might be wrong about how low that percentage is; it could well be closer to the original understanding of %5-15) of the total market yet only ~4-5 years younger than Steam.

edit: guess I'll also mention I didn't read the article :P

I didn't bother to read the article, but I can't see this being pulled off. The sleeping giant didn't get to be the way it was though inaction, and that's not even accounting for the several hornets nests they'd knock on their way to such a number.

Edit: A word.

Have people actually bought many games overall? I'm sure the timed exclusives made a lot of money, but at their initial cost.
I feel like most people just take the free shit and leave.

e: I completely forgot about the Tencent thing. I guess with that, they could make a ton from China.

While it's all guesses since corporations don't reveal hard numbers, I thought the numbers I heard for GOG's market share were like 10-15%. If you read somewhere it's that low, god knows why any big publisher bothers.

dont think this target is even remotely possible to reach
maybe 20%
wish they would reach 25-30% , i spend most of my game money on epic lately sometimes games are cheaper , that is enough for me , especially if they are drm-free

With all of the reasons Epic Games gives and will give in the future I still choose gog.com first and then Steam second and Epic Games Store never.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GOG.com#Market_share (bits and pieces here but what we mostly already knew I think)

What I wrote might be wrong. I might have read that on the forum or GOG subreddit from somebody doing GOG income divided by total money spent on PC gaming. But if I do something like 40,000,000/36,000,000,000 (2019 $36 billion based on a quick google search) I get 0.00111 which is insanely low, so maybe what I'm misremembering what I read or misremembering the context or something. Hopefully others chime in.

edit: I've done some scouring and still can't figure out where I read the 1-2%, so maybe disregard what I wrote there. I'd be curious to know how much market share GOG would need to get even the older "AAA" games on Steam that we're still missing (which is mainly what I'm interested in :p)

I don't have formal information about this, but I highly doubt GOG's market share is anywhere remotely close to 15%.

If Steam has 75%, then that leaves only 25% left for the combination of Ubisoft, Activision/Blizzard, EA, Bethesda, EGS, Rockstar, etc., etc. ...and GOG also fighting them all too for a piece of that same 25% of the pie.

I suspect most of those companies have a much larger market share than GOG does.

Having said that, I too hope someone will chime in who can pinpoint exactly how low GOG's market share is, or at least a reasonably accurate estimate.

GOG's market share is often around 10% or so on average. There have been a few games though that were a lot lower. Eg, Supraland's dev said it was as low as 1% when he removed it from GOG, though that was another example of a game that due to "communication issues" only released on GOG much later than Steam and thus missed out on a lot of potential release day sales + pre-orders that would have bumped the figure higher.