UnashamedWeeb: Thoughts from your posts:
1. Great anecdotes, but no data or stats in any of your posts.
I'm not sure what kind of data I can provide you. The executives don't normally reveal their souls to me over some beers, but my observations from 25+ years in this industry as well as countless conversations with colleagues over this very topic make me believe things are a certain way. All of the layoffs, be they from offshoring, AI, over-hiring, etc., I see in context of all of the previous ones.
UnashamedWeeb: 2. I was talking about qualified 4 yr BSc CS grads - not 4-6 week bootcamp vibe-coders. Not all of them, but these juniors are just as talented and passionate as you were cannot find entry-level work at regular companies (not the elite big tech positions) because of hiring freezes and offshoring that is being stop-gapped by advancing AI that makes entering the workforce a lot more challenging.
A couple of things here.
First, the majority of CS graduates are qualified to solve LC puzzles and little else. This is a big problem, but it is not a new problem. Take a random new grad with a 4-year degree and hiring them is really not any better than hiring a bootcamp grad. I know this because I've long lost count of the interviews I've conducted and had plenty of chances to compare the outcomes.
Second, it's not an AI problem. Having a fresh CS diploma had only ever guaranteed you immediate employment in a couple of instances that were few and far between throughout the years. Companies have an issue hiring juniors not because they can be replaced by AI, but because it's usually a loss to them. Unless said junior was going to stay at the company for years and years, dedicating time and effort of existing employees to training them was always a huge upfront expense that's far from guaranteed to ever be recovered. It was exactly the same when I started working.
UnashamedWeeb: 3. To excuse the layoffs as all of them being lazy, incompetent people in it for the money is cruel and untrue. Every corporate veteran from various industries knows there are always good, passionate, hardworking, and talented people who get let go and it's not their faults.
That's not at all what I said. I did say that the incompetent people who entered the industry in droves at specific points in time were largely fired eventually. I stand by that statement. It does not, however, mean that the only people to ever be laid off were the members of that group. Layoffs do happen. I myself was laid off a couple of times so I know all about it. Still, layoffs are a normal part of the corporate lifecycle. All industries have them and they are a result of mismanagement.
Now, the reason that the traditional industries have fewer of them while the modern tech industry has more, is because the modern tech industry does things differently than traditional industries. Both for better and, in this case, for worse. This means that both the successes and the failures are much more prominent and at scale. You could call it "high risk, high reward" if you were so inclined.
UnashamedWeeb: 4. You've got a 'fuck you, got mine' attitude; we all know senior technical people are safe for now because they're using AI to replace the work of junior workers that companies aren't hiring.
You got me figured out absolutely wrong. I actually strongly believe we need to be hiring more juniors even at a loss. I spend quite a bit of time mentoring people both at work and outside of it, always volunteer to do things like interviewing interns, etc., that nobody else wants to do. So no, no "fuck you" at all. Even though I did get mine. Letting them have theirs doesn't take mine away, though.
And you are oh so wrong about people like me using AI to replace them. Yes, there are experienced engineers who like to assign tedious menial tasks to juniors, but that's not mentorship, that's just busy-work that teaches them nothing. And believe it or not, I am much better and faster at doing it myself (even without AI) simply because I've done it a million times, I can automate it, I can fight back if I feel it's unnecessary, etc. Giving it to a junior would mean wasting their time (because they would take longer) and then wasting my time (because I'd need to check their work) possibly twice (because I might need to fix their work), and they've learned nothing at all while doing it. In the end everyone loses. So good engineers never do that.
The AI tools we have are a force multiplier not a replacement. At the end of the day that AI just helps me speed up my own tedium, it doesn't affect the juniors. If anything, it makes me more available to them because I now have more time to sit down with them and do stuff together. Same is true for anyone who knows the first thing about helping new developers grow.
UnashamedWeeb: All I can say is I hope the offshoring AI leopards don't eat your face in 10 years and I'm glad my field doesn't have to deal with this AI bullshit for a long, long time.
I'm not worried. Here's why. Offshoring, or, as we call it, outsourcing, was there since before I started. Companies were always trying to find ways to cut costs. Jobs went to all sorts of places where salaries are very low: India, Europe, South America, etc. That did nothing to kill off the US's own industry, in fact, it grew ever larger. Why? Well, for the same reason AI won't kill it. Turns out the job of a software engineer isn't to actually sit there and type furiously. Quite a bit of context comes into play. You are very well familiar with that as an engineer yourself. Simple things can be outsourced, but just about every major outsourced project I've ever seen had failed. Yes, the costs were cut, some exec got a bonus, then they left and the whole thing had to be redone properly.
So no, I'm ok. More importantly, the new generation of developers is also ok. They are growing up in a different world than we grew up in just like we grew up in a very different world from that of our parents. That's not a bad thing, though.