PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT

nmillar is back but Flocke isn't. I do have a sub who can step in but I still have hopes for Flocke to come back out of thin air just like nmillar did. Since I have quite a lot to do because of Easter anyway, I'm putting the game on hold until Monday. By then I'll expect Flocke to report back to me or, in case that doesn't happen, I'll bring in the substitute and continue the game adding 3 days additional RL days to timeline of D2. I believe that should provide enough time for all potential scenarios to be resolved properly (catching up and so on).

The game is put on hold until Monday.

Please, stop posting until I hit PLAY again.

FlockeSchnee has been replaced by trentonlf.

All active votes remain but have been re-aligned with the replacement in mind.

D2 has been extended with 3 RL days.



VOTE COUNT

GymHenson 2 - Pookina (#332), nmillar (#372)
Bookwyrm627 1 - GymHenson (#347)
Lifthrasil 1 - Microfish_1 (#353)
nmillar 1 - Lifthrasil (#358)
trentonlf 1 - Microfish_1 (#364)

With 9 players it takes 5 votes to achieve a lynch.

GymHenson is closest to lynch at L-3.

D2 ends in just over 3 days.


You may resume posting.

Are we back on? Coolio.

Welcome trent. I'm too tired to catch up now, but will do in the morn.

Hello everyone! Glad to be here, but was hoping I was the Innocent Child. First off, I am very disappointed that there was no lynch on Day 1, that only served to help scum. Second, I saw ZFR's analysis of when the IC should claim, but I have to disagree with it.

As of right now we have 9 left, with 2 being scum. So scum need to get it to 4 alive meaning they just need to cause 2 mislynches and they win. Whoever the IC is needs to claim now. It is one less person Town needs to focus on, and they get a free bulletproof for tonight. So that means tomorrow they are still someone that Town does not need to focus on. Claiming now is optimal because if we mislynch today and tomorrow we lose anyway and whoever the IC is will have wasted the advantage they give Town. Also, taking away Day chat from scum is something that needs to happen sooner rather than later. Day chat can be a huge boon coordinating things and pointing out errors to each other.

I have my thoughts as to who I think are potential scum, but right now I would love it if everyone game me their top 2 options and why.

I hope you're feeling better now.

I could maybe pull it off, being so quick to change play styles(on purpose and sometimes not so on purpose) sometimes and all...but i'd probably not be able to maintain it is scum for long due to my memory issues/sparse note taking.

(of course I could be scum and this could be le clever ruse....there's no way for me to verify being town, after all...so take the above with a grain of salt)

Coolio indeed.....Aw Here it goes!

+++

Boomp needed to make a reply

Glad to have ya here as well.

I disagree...I think(if ZFR's math holds up, which it likely does), then the slight advantage there from having one NL might help town later on(barring we don't have a ton of bad luck re: our choices from now on, that is).

Agreed on all points.....IC should come out asap....if not today(d2) then d3 at the latest.

I'm as in the dark as ever....voting Book based on what I think(memory, etc) are my strongest suspicions(which admittedly aren't that good/strong). Beyond that I have little to go on myself atm, so willing to vote near anyone else with equal priority/weight.

Could you clarify what you mean here, please? That could read as you suggesting a further NL later on?

I will be in a training class all day today so will not be overly active until this evening. Just waiting on everyone's thoughts still...

Interesting thought. But why do you say that they win after 2 mislynches? We are at 7 vs 2 right now. Let's go through the possibilities.

If we mislynch Today, we will be at 5 vs 2 tomorrow. If the IC survives and comes out then, we'll have 4 unconfirmed townies vs 2 scum plus one unvotable and unkillable IC. Random voting would have a 1/3 change of hitting scum. Majority for lynch will be at 4. The next Nightkill won't fail because scum know whom not to target. So if we mislynch again, we'll be at 3 vs. 2 on D4. One of which will be the IC. Which is still winnable.

If we lynch correctly Today, we'll be at 8 vs 1 Tomorrow. (Then, assuming subsequent mislynches: 6 vs 1, 4 vs 1, 2 vs 1)

...
sorry. Important call and after that another meeting. I'll return later and continue this thought.

Hello! I see you are (implicitly) claiming to not be the IC. I'm not sure why you'd do this unprompted? If the IC wishes to remain hidden you've just reduced their hiding places by one.

I appreciate that you have strong feelings about what the IC should do, but I think ultimately it's their decision on how they want to play it. Claiming not to be IC and therefore nudging them towards being outed is not cool.

I lurked super hard thus far on Day 2, waiting to see what nmillar and catte would provide now that we've gone through a Day/Night cycle. I am disappointed by what I've seen.

I'm also distinctly surprised that no one has called me out on my lurking. I'm not sure what to make of this.

---

Thoughts on the NK:

I've found NK's to be really hard to analyze in a setup like this one because you just don't know what the scum are going to prioritize. ZFR could have been killed because scum thought he looked town (the fewer people that are trusted as town, the easier End Of Game becomes), or because he had some accuracy in his reads, or simply because he was one of the active players that didn't look lynchable (kill him and let town start to starve itself with inactivity). Maybe they thought he was IC (remove a lock town player and aren't worried about losing Day Chat), or maybe they wanted to target a town-ish looking player that they thought was NOT the IC (value the Day Chat more).

If I were scum and trying to pick a NK, would I kill someone that suspects me? Absolutely! After all, the more of those I kill, the bigger the proportion of living people that don't think I'm scum. I wouldn't even need to work very hard to "cover my tracks" because of the plethora of possible reasons for a target.

Regardless, as Lift points out (306), scum didn't go for a lurker. It is possible they couldn't pick a NK from the lurker crowd because they are hiding in the lurker crowd.
https://www.gog.com/forum/general/gog_mafia_72_starship_of_the_gods_part_ii_the_infernal_engine/post306

Blotunga's post 304 is curious to me: Why the focus on Lift? He certainly wasn't ZFR's only suspect.
https://www.gog.com/forum/general/gog_mafia_72_starship_of_the_gods_part_ii_the_infernal_engine/post304

Scum team is Blotunga + Catte (307)?
https://www.gog.com/forum/general/gog_mafia_72_starship_of_the_gods_part_ii_the_infernal_engine/post307

PPE: So many people believe that scum wouldn't kill those that suspect him. This baffles me.

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D1 Thought:
Flock/Trent and Catte both decided to go No Lynch one after the other (posts 222 and 224). The sudden direction of a pair of players like that is a little interesting, but I'm inclined to think this puts them as Not Scum Together because I find it a little hard for Catte to want that connection to be so obvious and visible.
https://www.gog.com/forum/general/gog_mafia_72_starship_of_the_gods_part_ii_the_infernal_engine/post222
https://www.gog.com/forum/general/gog_mafia_72_starship_of_the_gods_part_ii_the_infernal_engine/post224

So I'm thinking the scum are not Flock/Trent + Catte

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Analysis from Pookina. I like this kind of thing. I'm not lynching this right now.

Seeing content from Micro. Feels legit, I'm not interested in lynching here either. The reason for voting Lift in 353 ("Dead Town voted here, so I'll vote here") hurts me in the heart, though.
https://www.gog.com/forum/general/gog_mafia_72_starship_of_the_gods_part_ii_the_infernal_engine/post353

GH has used so many words to provide so little content. First content, such as it is, comes in 347, where he selects the only fluffy part from my post and suspects me for it. Reach the latest post and that's still basically his only game content for Day 2. 10/10, would lynch again.
https://www.gog.com/forum/general/gog_mafia_72_starship_of_the_gods_part_ii_the_infernal_engine/post347

nmillar with no original thoughts and no analysis, just piggybacking. Anti-town. Would lynch.

Catte has had a dearth of content. Would lynch.

Vote nmillar

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Trent: Are you still playing from your phone? I seem to recall that posting links to posts helped you with that. If it doesn't make a difference, then I might not continue to shorten my post length.

I don't see much in ZFR's interactions to indicate who might have killed him and why, every idea is WIFOM.

As I said earlier toDay - it could have been Lift killing the person accusing him - but that seems too obvious. It could also have been someone else killing him to suggest that.

Another possibility that occurred to me was that ZFR went back and forth accusing GH of being scum before eventually town reading him. A scum GH might have killed ZFR in order to make that read "set in stone", ZFR can't change his mind now.
There is a tendency (at least for me) to place a bit more faith in the reads of someone flipped townie. Obviously when someone flips town we know that their reads were sincere but that doesn't particularly make them accurate (although it can feel that way).

Maybe I missed it, did ZFR ever explain what GH's "town tell" was?