I see that some people have been giving their reads, so I was planning on attempting to do so myself. This was until I realized that we are about 200 posts in an the NL is still the main point of contention. I just feel we need to get this whole discussion out of our system before I can give any real analysis, so against my better judgement:

Vote Nolynch

If anything really jumps out at me before the deadline I will gladly change my vote. At this point however, if were going to have a NL take place in this game I guess I would rather it be done and over with on D1. Hopefully if this is the path that we go down the first NK gives us enough tangibile evidence to really start diggin D2.

That sure would be a hell of a slip to cost them the whole game. However, as I stated above I can't read anything from lift or joppo other than they both leaned anti-NL. Same with pooka's braggingrights post, it seems peoples scum lists are solely being built based on what side of the NL debate they're on, and scumreading(not sure if term) the most vocal proponents of the opposite side. I get that's basically what happens when analyzing wagons, but after a wagon we actually have tangible results as to which side benefitted from the outcome. It wouldn't put it past the scum to help hammer home the NL, and use their voting record down the line to argue their town-ness.

Sorry, busy few days at work. Catching up, and will post something more substantial today.

Let me quote you exactly what I said "It’s simple, you clearly stated doing a no lynch when there is an even number of players increases Towns chances of winning. Last I checked there’s 12 people playing."

There's the answer, and as I said it's the same as before. If you don't like the answer you will have to move on because as I said it will not change. I'm also not going to do probabilities with you, if you can't see town having a large advantage if there are only 2 mafia with 12 players and Town knowing there's only 2 mafia players then we will have to agree to disagree.

You say you can't townread him, but you don't say anything about scum reading him. Is this on purpose? in that very same post you mentioned giving lift scum points, so this obviously isn't a list of towny players. When you mentioned trent, you said it could go either way.
Otoh, I think you wouldn't be that obvious as to only give your teammate backhandedly positive reviews (in the same post where you discuss pros & cons of the other 2, you add GH and say nothing against but use the term :townread") this early on.

going with my hunches, because I have nothing better other than to target Lift based on ZFR's word and I'd rather hear Trent's reply before voting him or not...

vote pooka

NOT because of the "bragging rights trio" but because of his wording here in prasing and criticizing the other 2, but only "cannot townread yet" for GH, which seems a very sly way of promoting GH without seeming to so do. When i was scum, a Bragging rights trio from one of my teammates included me.

I'd also be willing to vote nmillar, if only for absenteeism (it would be a pity), or bucktooth (who I have not played with before--and thus am unwilling to D1 lunch, but who has also been almost as low-content as myself.) Or Joe. he hasn't responded to my comment, which makes him suspicious. ;P


@dedo, thank you.

++++++

Thanksgiving is Thursday, and Wednesday AM is in a few hours here, so yes, but no. Preparations are underway, and this year is vastly toned down, but some prep is occurring in some households. The stores have lots of loss-leaders on sale right now, so the stores are packed.

This year I want to say that I'm thankful for the friends I've made on gog in the last year and a half or so--I appreciate all of you (even those who aren't in this game). Playing forum mafia and / or otherwise interacting with you has made the year seem less crazy, and this is a year when "less crazy" is a Very Good Thing. Thank you!

This has nothing to do with probabilities. It's about you putting words in my mouth that I never said.

I said:
With even number of players we should NL and it doesn't matter when.

You said:
With even number of players, ZFR is pushing for NL on D1.

I gave you a chance to explain, but obvioulsy you're not going to do it. Chaging other players' words is not cool and very anti-Town.

Vote trent

The two above quotes are the ones that stand out for me at the moment. Are Micro and ZFR scum buddies, hence the "slip" and putting bucktooth in Micro's place?

I agree with Lift. A no lynch does indeed extend the D1 misery. While statistically, it might make sense, it gives us no reads on any wagons or interactions between players.

For now, my vote will be either ZFR or Micro.

Still catching up on yesterday's posts.

OK, sorry I see you've already answered the second question in the same post. I missed it.

So you're basically saying that at 10 vs 2 Town have an advnatge because... no reason. It's obvious and everyone should see it. Despite the models and historical evidence from games played on mafiascum.net saying otherwise? OK.

With that cleared, question to everyone: what do you make of this post?

To me, the LOL part seems like exasperation. trent was already pissed at having just 2 Mafioso vs 10, and became really annoyed when he found out that on top of that, Town already know that it's only 2.

Incidentally,

I haven't seen trent make these type of remarks in previous games. The indirect accusations.

I know it shouldn't happen, but I'd like to change my bragging rights

braggingrights #2
trent, Lift

Not sure about Lift, but if trent is scum, it might be an explanation why Lift didn't vote me. He didn't want to be the second person to jump on a wagon his buddy jumped on already.

lolwat

Yes, this obviously isn't a list of towny players. As the good user Pookina once said, this list is a collection of

It really is a list of some quick thoughts. When I had first started writing it, let me say I had no clear vision or a goal in mind behind writing this. I just wrote the thoughts that were circling in my head. That's really it. But let's address the bigger point:

You're right, I said I can't townread him but nothing about scumreading him. Come with me on a tour into the mind of Pookina: Townreads and Scumreads are two different sides of a spectrum. So if I say that I can't townread him, then I'm not finding him finding on the Town side of things. Its absence implies it, but I'll make it explicit: I can't find anything to give him scumpoints either. He's just there. As do you, as does bucktooth, as does nmiliar as does Joe as does dedo as as as, but the next point:

Why did I mention Lift, ZFR, trent and GH? Those are the four players that popped into my head. As you probably already know based on previous observations, D1 is my weakest day, so I don't do a lot of effort into townreading (or scumreading if you will) the whole board; a lot of discussions are weak topics and the number of players engaging in them quickly overwhelm me. So I focus on fewer people. These are who I focused on.

In other words, there's nothing suspicious about my usage of "townreading" here, and I wasn't giving anyone some subtle Town points (least of which not by not giving them Town points in the same post where I gave others scum points). And as you noticed yourself, it could go either way for trent; that's the same scenario for GH.

Either way...
I appreciate it, comrade! I may not celebrate Thanksgiving, but I'm still thankful of the time I spent here, even with all what'going on!

Okay, I find myself agreeing with this too, so I'm already flip-flopping on ZFR. Trent definitely comes across as suspicious here. I'm not convinced that Lift is necessarily his scum buddy, but I can see that ZFR has simply swapped out Joppo for Trent for his bragging rights, so not really anything else to read into there.

So at the moment, I have ZFR, Micro and Trent on my radar, with the latter seemingly the most likely at this stage.

Is everyone in agreement that there are definitely only two scum in this game? I've not checked the sign-up thread for anything that verifies this yet.

I can see how it might appear as a slip, but if that's the case, it'd indicate bucktooth to be my buddy, not Micro.

If Micro is my buddy, why would I draw attention to him in the first place? dedo asked "do you see bucktooth as lurking?" I could have easily answer "yes, he didn't make that many posts, so is a bit of a lurker" Bringing scum!Micro, who was never in the discussion to begin with, by scum!ZFR makes no sense.

Found the post in the sign-up thread, and it was actually a reply to me, so no idea how I missed that. Definitely a 2 scum game.

I find it at least interesting (funny/worrisome, depending on your alignment) that you say this in the same post you vote nolynch.

What? I don't know what you consider it, but for me townreading and scumreading are just two sides of the same coin. In past games I always said "I scumread player Y like this" and after that I listed where in the town-mafia scale they fell. Sometimes fiercely in the towny side.

So I have to say that Pooka's explanation makes sense and your jump on him feels like a half-assed attempt to shade.

I don't like voting on D1 because we don't have any certainty. But I'm feeling bold, so
Vote Micro

I agree. Personally I had a better 2020 than most people, and I have many reasons to be thankful. One of those is the friendship I have formed with the people I play Mafia (and Among Us) with. Thanks mates.

I'm not sure I follow this in the context of the surrounding explanations. You say you don't like the idea of no-lynchying and later you also say a wagon is likely to provide more some kind of information to be looked at but you choose to go with the option you don't like just to get it out of the way? I find this somewhat confusing.


This is just forced and even though I normally shy away from using the phrase as I'm never 100% sure if I'm doing it in the correct situation I'm pretty certain this is what's called a strawman argument (is it?).


I don't know about the rest of it but the "lol" format did seem out of character. It looks like an attempt to shrug off a mistake on the account of poor setup presentation (although I do agree that it could have been noted in a more official manner in the actual game thread - I personally don't like it when some of the information that is vital to the game is present elsewhere as sometime people including myself announce their participation and fuck off until they are personally called out by the host when the game starts).

It looks like a pretty direct accusation to me. Can't remember if it's in line with what Trent does but normally he makes a fool out of me so I'm not sure if that particular bit should be taken as indication that he is scum on it's own.


That is my understanding as it was basically the focal point of discussions while we waited to see who would play (the number of players would dictate the number of scum).

Point made.


Now that nmillar has returned I'm comfortable to switch to my original choice.


unvote nmillar


vote trent

Nope. Braggingrights can't be changed. Sorry!

But you might be onto something about trent's annoyance. Maybe he is annoyed that he is playing against a percieved number advantage.

However, I didn't not vote you because he already voted you, but because I didn't see your obstinacy as scummy. Just annoying. I didn't like the fact that you wanted to take the fun out of the game for the first two Days. But that doesn't make you scummy. You know, I CAN disagree with you, quite strongly even, without attributing your disagreeable stance to your alignment.


@bucktooth: I don't understand your vote. The badness of no-lynch has been discussed. Even ZFR has dropped his drive for no-lynch. You appreciate yourself that we need information. And then you go and vote no-lynch. Why?
I had you as leaning town so far. But this vote doesn't make sense.