The biggest hole is that there could be no mafia night kill tonight. If they do indeed get their kills on alternate nights, then tonight is the turn of the Gambiani family!
That actually does not matter at all.
I went over Zchinque's plan and I am satisfied. You did a very fine job there, Z. Here's the exact same thing from a different perspective (more or less what I wrote for myself to check the logic), I just developed the later parts of it a bit more: Day four:
ZCH hammers SPF, both die [6 alive: JEF, RED, BAZ, NFY, DAM, NMI] Night four:
- JEF kills RED
- RED *protects* JEF
- BAZ *protects* and /blocks/ NMI
- NFY investigates DAM or NMI
[5 alive: *JEF*, BAZ, NFY, DAM, */NMI/*]
A: scum kills, B: scum does not kill Day five, variant A:
Scum kills and four people come out of the night. (100% alive: JEF, NMI; dead: one of BAZ, NFY, DAM). Conclusions:
NMI is @town (couldn't NK; even if BAZ was killed, roleblocks are resolved first
JEF is @town (killed RED, couldn't NK another)
(We also get one reliable cop result from NMI, possibly one semi-reliable from NFY. Cross-checking NMI and NFY's info could clear NFY.)
Variant A1, DAM is alive:
Day six: @NMI+@JEF+BAZ/NFY lynch DAM [3 alive: @NMI, @JEF, BAZ/NFY]
Night six: @JEF kills BAZ/NFY [2 alive, @NMI and @JEF, both confirmed town: victory]
(if scum-BAZ blocks JEF to prevent his death, day seven follows in which @NMI and @JEF lynch BAZ)
Variant A2, DAM is dead:
Day six: @NMI+@JEF+NFY lynch BAZ [3 alive: @NMI, @JEF, NFY]
Night six: @JEF kills NFY [2 alive, @NMI and @JEF, both confirmed town: victory]
(There's also variant A3 which is the same as A2 but lynches NFY instead of BAZ; A2 is better because scum-BAZ cannot try any block/protect shenanigans on night six. Not that he would, of course.) Day five, variant B:
(this is where things get tricky)
Scum did not kill. Possible reasons include:
* no nightkill was submitted
* no nightkill was submitted because scum was doing something else
* it was the Gambiani's turn to kill and they were wiped out already
* nightkill target was */NMI/* (unlikely; such move has no benefit for scum)
* nightkill target was *JEF* (unlikely; such move has no benefit for scum)
* *JEF* is scum and his kill was actually the scumkill
* */NMI/* is scum and couldn't NK as he was blocked
[5 alive: JEF, BAZ, NFY, DAM, NMI]
Cop results are not necessarily reliable, night actions do not confirm anyone as town.
NMI is lynched [4 alive: JEF, BAZ, NFY, DAM]
- JEF kills DAM
- BAZ *protects* and /blocks/ NFY
[3 alive: JEF, BAZ, */NFY/*]
a: scum kills, b: scum does not kill
[2 alive: BAZ and either JEF or NFY]
!scum-BAZ wins (JEF and NFY are town, as there is no way they could have performed the nightkill if they are scum -- NFY was blocked by @BAZ and JEF was busy killing DAM)
[3 alive: JEF, BAZ, NFY]
A very traditional endgame follows, where one of the following happens:
Day six: JEF+BAZ lynch NFY [If either JEF or BAZ are scum, scum wins.]
Day six: JEF+NFY lynch BAZ [If either JEF or NFY are scum, scum wins.]
Day six: NFY+BAZ lynch JEF [If either NFY or BAZ are scum, scum wins.]
So basically, this plan leads to a guaranteed town win, unless the remaining scum is one of JEF, NFY or BAZ, and even if that is the case, there is still a pretty big chance town pulls it off (basically it's absolutely hopeless for town only if I am scum, and quite frankly, at this point I don't see how anyone can think that -- but feel free to, of course).
It's important to stress that if at any point something happens that this plan does not account for (like for example someone being blocked who had no reason to be blocked; we do not know what role the remaining scum has, and cannot hope to guess, or when the person JEF was supposed to kill survives the night), it is stopped immediately and re-evaluated. And it is absolutely imperative that all townies stick to the plan without any
deviation. No spur of the moment heroism. Yes, this gets a lot of people killed. But this is pure pragmatism here: remember townies win with town, even when dead.
Also, the whole thing falls completely apart if there are more than 1 scum left. But if there are, I don't see how we can get out of this alive, anyway.