Okay, caught up with the post, but feeling the looming deadline of my semester project on the 20th. I am aware that I said I would post in the weekend, but sadly things got delayed. My vote still stands so that doesn't change and just to get it clarified in regards to the question JMich asked: It should be pretty obvious that the reason I didn't mention my other subjects is not because I dropped them, but because none asked to it and nothing changed in regards to them. I'll likely be expanding on that comment when I make my next post later today.

Also i do hope to hear some more from AFP - seems like I am not the only one busy at this month (No wonder really).

Also a short note in regards to the Robb affair: I already had him on my list so its not like nobody other than joe care about it - My prime reason was a case of fail, but the feeling of suspicion was never removed - but lessened significant. I still haven't really made my mind up in the case yet, but as already said Vitek is one of my most town reads, given that I for once have gotten any suspect feeling about him.

More later.

OK

I seem to have dug myself a bit of a hole here...

@Vitek - I have no real answers to any inconsistency I have shown other than I have not had the time I would like to devote to the game, work has gone ape recently. I accept all your points and how they could make me look scummy .

Not much of a defence, and I suspect I'm prime candidate for Lynch. So - as I am Town and will be vindicated by said lynch, I want all other Town people to look very closely at my bandwagon, who came in when in the voting, anyone who expressed doubts (if that happens!)

Joe started my Bandwagon - after he jumped on something Vitek said. He must be a suspect.
Vitek - not so much surprisingly. He has good points and approaches the matter as a good townsperson does.
Red_Baron - always been a candidate for scum for me, and will remain so after his latest post. wishy washy about support for my bandwagon, just in case he needs an out later.
nmillar - ditto with the tentative support.

I would say that at least one of the four above is Mafia. Remaining Town, you will have to do your best to winkle them out.

All that said of course, doesnt mean i want to be lynched. Oh no Sir! I'm just not happy with the AFP bandwagon and won't support that one.

As a very superficial reader (lately), my pronostic is that the next lynch won't be you, robbeasy (on whom I have no real opinion, i'd have to follow more closely these arguments), but a_future_pilot (and without my vote). So, actually, I'm mostly waiting. I'm curious about how the a_f_p lynch would go, and what a_f_p will turn out to be. And yes, I think that observing these wagons will be interesting in retrospect, although (despite of no certainty, but personal evaluations of scum probabilities) I am already observing them a bit, in that perspective.

Robbeasy, IF you are town, and IF a_f_p flips town, get ready to cross-read the wagons passengers lists...

How can you have no opinion on Robbeasy?
He most likely slipped, he is not even disputing it and you have no opinion?!
Everyone should make opinion about it. Even if it is disagreement. It is not so hard to make. It takes only several posts to read.

Telika just distanced from both possible lynches, which is quite scummy but he did this last game as well as town.
Nmillar's post looks like failed bus attempt.
Rob is right about Red_Baron being wishy washy.
Btw. thanks for forum title, Baron.

Yeah, I haven't. It takes more than skimming through a few new posts, it takes a chronological re-read of the thread, to check Rob's posts evolutions and implications (else than through your presentations). Can't dedicate myself to this right now. Without this, on a superficial level, there's plausibility on both sides. Both possible lynches ? I'm still voting for the vitek bandwagon, and diametrically disagreeing with those who consider you blatantly town. I still think you have more chances to flip mafia than a_f_p. Am not distancing myself from this, I mostly expect a_f_p to flip town, and would mostly expect you to flip mafia in night 2. These are my current beliefs, based on the period where my readings were deeper. These are not touched by new elements (yet).

I'm on my (argumented) default position, and am superficially observing how things evolve. Who gets lynched, and what his role was. We're at a day's end, and a first day, even. I'll probably re-dive in this in day 2, after my impressions got reinforced or undermined by the lynch/night events. Right now, i'm in a "my move, your move, end of round" mindset.

It would be cool to be wrong though.

Not the large post I intended, but needed to get this clarified, since apparently my quick post is construed in a different manner than I intended for reasons I am somewhat puzzled about.
I wonder how its wishy washy that I say exactly the same thing I said even before the bandwagon on you started. I was pointing out to Vitek, who was complaining about that none other than Joe had taken a look at you (besides Vitek himself of course) that I also had voiced an interest in you, but that I didn't have clear case against you given that the one I had failed.
It should be pretty damn clear what I mean with that. So no, I am not voicing support for your bandwagon, in fact writing that I do that would only make sense if I were scum and you were too, hence we would both know that if you got lynched I would need to be able to point at how I found you suspect early on. If I was voting for you with that reason it would be an entirely other matter, but I am not.. I am voting for my prime suspect. If you were more than just one of my lower list of suspects you would get the vote. Just like how you have a list of four people, where I am assuming you suspect them all to a different degree. So yea, my top suspects and my just suspects change around.. big surprise.. but if they do I react with a vote and I state that as a fact. For now the only thing that have happened with the list I posted last time, it my realization that I was making you a bigger suspect than you were due to a wrong recall of a post - that didn't remove you from my list, nor does a post like that very one - given that they are part of why your on my list in the first place, but if your on the top of it is another matter entirely.

And in that case A_F_P got the spot, because he made what I consider direct scummy actions, while you just make scummy sounding posts, which I always seem to consider your posts, hence that doesn't have as much impact.

Also I noticed an error in my previous post:
"but as already said Vitek is one of my most town reads, given that I for once have gotten any suspect feeling about him." should have been: "that I for once haven't gotten"
The meaning should have been obvious, but for clarity sake.

I'm sorry, but the confidentiality agreement I signed with the Government prevents me revealing that. I've already said too much.

Am curious why you labelled Vitek super townie?

No, day 1 lynchs tend to be based on very minor things. So don't see why a mafia player would feel the need to back up his buddy. Just seems much easier to wait for town to do so. Or even just join a town lead bandwagon.

Now i've said that I fully expect you to present several examples from previous games where mafia players have done exactly what you suggested.

Just because I read it as a dare and as a bit of fun Rob your point is completely valueless :P

He seems to be the towniest according to several players. Which is a bit weird, given that he's also one of the scummiest according to others (me including).

Would have to check back to be sure but it seems to me that afp has been avoiding explaining himself for quite a while. Reminds me a bit of game 10 and it seems the newbie shield has kicked in and Rob is going to end up been lynched instead.

Hum very pro town post from Rob in making sure reads are out there. As with deadline looming votes could pile up quickly.

@Joe All i've seen from Vitek is Vitek playing how he normally does so I don't understand how that makes him mafia. To my mind you were trying to build a case out of thin air without even a scrap of evidence against him. Please could you enlighten me as to what makes you think Vitek is mafia.

@Rob what makes you think afp is town?

@Telika why do you think afp is town, why do you expect Vitek to flip mafia night 2 and unless your mafia how can you be sure you'll be around for day 2?

NFY can we have a vote count and can deadline be moved to 17th as activity tends to dip over weekend.

By default, I don't find the arguments for A_f_p's scumminess convincing, and I find Vitek's arguments scummy. Because Vitek is scummy to me, and pushing on A_f_p, I kinda expect A_f_p to be town. If Vitek is town, then I'm back to having no read on A_f_p. I don't find him particularly more townish than scummy.

And I expect the Vitek bandwagon to restart when if target flips town, so I wouldn't be surprised if Vitek gets lynched in day 2. Now, indeed, I forgot about the possibility of a Vitek townie murder during the night. I don't know if, as townie, he'd be a valid target for mafia. If he's right about his lynch demands, then he might be dangerous to mafia. But again, mafia would confirm his suspicions. I don't know, this gets wifom quite intensely.

But basically, I always tend to forget about the mafia murder aspect at night, being too focused on lynch issues. I said spectacular idiocies in late game13 because of this (calculating that we had still plenty safe mislynches to afford before endangering town).

Although you don't like it, I am not likely to be lynched and so is nobody else unless something new appears.

@pazzer; What Rob's post is very pro town?

You are the one constantly complainig how a lot of people see me as town, so you yourself should admit that I am not likely lynch.

Not complaining about the number of people (you were on a par with a_f_p a moment ago), but about the intensity of their conviction (putting you on the opposed end of the spectrum).

Well in that regard I do also find myself, why I don't really consider VItek a super town or whatever (given that everyone is essentially a suspect), i have for some reason not gotten my usual vipe of him being scum.. No clue why, but I get what you mean with the opposite end of the spectrum.