It seems that you're using an outdated browser. Some things may not work as they should (or don't work at all).
We suggest you upgrade newer and better browser like: Chrome, Firefox, Internet Explorer or Opera

×
Sorry I haven't been around the last couple of days. Just getting back from the holidays and such :/

From my PM I have no reason to suspect that I've been poisoned.
avatar
Krypsyn: It would be very easy for a scum to claim they had been poisoned to draw out the hypothetical healer.
avatar
Telika: Fortunately or unfortunately, no risk on that side. Unfortunately because as I don't know to whom I owe my life, I still have to work with the same number of suspects in front of me. Fortunately because there's no risk to trick someone by claiming to be poisoned.

The only benefit I see, for a mafioso, in claiming to be poisoned, is that it makes him look quite townie. So, here, keeping a "wifom" in mind (remembering to not assume anything about a poisoned person's affiliation) may be useful, and may neutralise this risk.
It's hard though, because there's a lack of evidence floating around at the moment (and with you stating that you might be lying, it does make my head spin a bit). It's hard for a mafia though to use this without evidence. But there's nothing I can really do but speculate here, so I'm just going to let it rest for the time being.

What I would like to do, is try to analyze everything surrounding Vitek's lynchwagon. Admittedly, it's going to be a hard sell for any theories, but I think it's worth a shot. At the very least we have something concrete there.

I've been throwing this around in my head, and I have to put this out there: I don't think there's more then 1 mafia on this wagon. The reasoning being, that a lynch like this came by pretty quickly, which leads me to believe that not all of the mafia would have had a chance to create a convincing argument to get onto the wagon, hell maybe they were taken off guard.

Hell, there might not even be any mafia on the lynch. Possibly they didn't foresee Vitek pushing SPF to vote for him and then hammering himself. Or as it got closer they figured it was safer for them to be off the lynch altogether. You don't really need an explanation to stay off a wagon, you do need a good one when you're on it though.

The other major theory is that most, if not all of the mafia are on the wagon, which would have been an oddly concentrated effort, especially considering the possibilities there. True, no one could have foreseen what happened and the mafia all got caught with their pants down, but, again, I just don't find this very likely. They'd still have to explain their votes, and most of the reasoning might have been sound early on (For pressure votes), but they're not really reason enough to lynch him. Hell I stand by my reasons for voting, and I can tell you that I don't think it would have been reason enough to lynch Vitek.

I don't know, I'm trying to think this through, but I'm having trouble with a starting point...it just feels very abnormal, but right now it's the only concrete thing we have.
avatar
TwilightBard: What I would like to do, is try to analyze everything surrounding Vitek's lynchwagon. Admittedly, it's going to be a hard sell for any theories, but I think it's worth a shot. At the very least we have something concrete there.
The people on Vitek's lynch-wagon were:
1) Robbeasy
2) nmillar
3) TwilightBard
4) Telika
5) Red_Baron
6) A_Future_Pilot
7) SirPrimalform
8) Vitek

In close to, if not exactly, that order I think (I just copy/pasted from NFY's final vote post, didn't double check).

Of those, I consider Robbeasy, Red_Baron, and A_Future_Pilot most probably town. SirPrimalform was pushed into his vote by Vitek, and Vitek pretty much absolved him before he was lynched. Vitek is confirmed town now, and lynched, so obviously he is off the list.

The only names left that I believe could be scum on that list would be the remainder: nmillar, TwilightBard, and Telika. All of whom voted in what I like to think of as the sweet spot for scum voting on lynches; right in the early-middle area. The votes are far enough in avoid looking like the scum started the lynch, but far enough from the end to not look over-eager or hammer-happy.

I don't have on opinion on which of those three names would be most guilty currently, but I am listing them for analysis purposes and posterity. I will need to do a reread to have a more concrete opinion, since none of those names have been at the top of my scumlist heretofore.
Maybe you should consider, instead of the day2 voting chronology, the arguments and the coherence with day1 postures. Has any voter magically switched to voting vitek after having shared his (scummy to the eyes of enough townies) stances in day1 ? Does the rob/red result and vitek's hostility to it suffice to explain any flip-flopping of that sort ?

I have voted "middle in the list" but vitek was my number 1 suspect in day1 too (for pretty good reasons, in my own eyes), and this only increased in day2. I haven't conveniently joined a bandwagon at a strategic moment : I hadn't left it at any point. If it makes me suspect, it makes me suspect from another angle (having constantly harrassed a townie during 2 days).

I think there were too many reasons to vote Vitek to allow pure day2 bandwagon reading (and he deprived us of hammer anaysis, although i might have ended up hammering him myself, given my conviction). I think we'd find something by tediously reading day2 in the light of day1. Haven't mustered the courage for that yet.
Just a quick check in post to say I am currently a bit dead after what turned out to be a Black Books marathon + wine. Also I've only subsequently had 3 hours sleep and typing all seems to be going wrong.
avatar
SirPrimalform: Just a quick check in post to say I am currently a bit dead after what turned out to be a Black Books marathon + wine.
The cheap dusty one, I hope ?
avatar
SirPrimalform: Just a quick check in post to say I am currently a bit dead after what turned out to be a Black Books marathon + wine.
avatar
Telika: The cheap dusty one, I hope ?
Oh yes and even some of the clean and expensive stuff too. I could type when I got home this morning, but after a bit of sleep it's a great effory!
Day 2 was over too fast for my taste, and the lack of a night kill for the second night in a row complicates things even more, since we still have no information to go on. So now to see what information we can gather, and how, especially since my primary suspect seems to have been cleared by Robbeasy
Viteks bandwagon is indeed all we can really look at on Day2 - it was so quick there was nothing else of significance that happened.

We don't have a great deal of info to work with here, but we do have vote positions, which I think carry an even greater significance in a speed lynch, as it doesnt give Mafia time to fiddle around with things so much.


I started it off with the first vote on him due to a strange comment made by him - if I knew that the bandwagon was going to be so quick I would have removed the vote, alas the lynch was completed before i looked at the game again!

nmillar - he has the 'getout' of saying Vitek was his prime suspect on day one, so he would happily get on a vote on him, but Vitek turned out Town, so who's to say nmillar wasn't scum pushing Vitek in day 1, then happily joining in again on Day 2?

The same reasoning here goes for Telika. The whole 'my vote was on him yesterday, so I'm clearly Town when I jump on this Bandwagon in such haste' does not really wash.

Twilight - aaah Twilight though.... I already stated that it wouldnt surprise me if two out of the three of nmillar, Telika and Twilight were Mafia - because of vote positions and readiness to jump in. Yet here comes Twilight early on Day 3 , putting it out there that he thinks there's only 1 Mafia at best on the lynch!

Nay sir.

Vote TwilightBard

Vitek did a horrible horrible horrible thing as Town by asking someone to vote him then Hammering himself, I hope he is ashamed of his actions as it is about as anti-town as you can get. I still sort of hope there's some unforeseen mechanic of the game that caused him to do that, because I had Vitek pegged as a good person...
avatar
Robbeasy: Viteks bandwagon is indeed all we can really look at on Day2 - it was so quick there was nothing else of significance that happened.

We don't have a great deal of info to work with here, but we do have vote positions, which I think carry an even greater significance in a speed lynch, as it doesnt give Mafia time to fiddle around with things so much.

I started it off with the first vote on him due to a strange comment made by him - if I knew that the bandwagon was going to be so quick I would have removed the vote, alas the lynch was completed before i looked at the game again!

nmillar - he has the 'getout' of saying Vitek was his prime suspect on day one, so he would happily get on a vote on him, but Vitek turned out Town, so who's to say nmillar wasn't scum pushing Vitek in day 1, then happily joining in again on Day 2?

The same reasoning here goes for Telika. The whole 'my vote was on him yesterday, so I'm clearly Town when I jump on this Bandwagon in such haste' does not really wash.

Twilight - aaah Twilight though.... I already stated that it wouldnt surprise me if two out of the three of nmillar, Telika and Twilight were Mafia - because of vote positions and readiness to jump in. Yet here comes Twilight early on Day 3 , putting it out there that he thinks there's only 1 Mafia at best on the lynch!

Nay sir.

Vote TwilightBard

Vitek did a horrible horrible horrible thing as Town by asking someone to vote him then Hammering himself, I hope he is ashamed of his actions as it is about as anti-town as you can get. I still sort of hope there's some unforeseen mechanic of the game that caused him to do that, because I had Vitek pegged as a good person...
My reasoning is simple. Just because their mafia, doesn't mean they can get away with weak attacks and voting reasons. Remember, as of SPF's vote, I don't think the wagon would have pushed itself to a lynch. Vitek pushed SPF, and then hammered himself very quickly.

The mafia might benefit from a speedlynch in the short run, but if you study the wagon it becomes obvious. We also have to consider that not everyone had been around to even post at that point. (There were 4 people who hadn't posted once before Vitek had self-hammered) And even those who were around might have looked at the speed things were going and hung back.

Rob and Baron have cleared themselves, and while SPF is still a suspect, you can't really make a case against him in this situation. That leaves everyone else. And no, I don't think that it's the middle people who just need to be examined (and observe how Telika tried to slide himself off of this by pushing that it had to be someone who wasn't pushing Vitek on Day 1).

....Ok, this is about 30 minutes after I started this, I thought I had more, but I didn't...expect me to remember it eventually, but I'm ending it here, still don't have a solid suspect.
Well actually I sort of agree with Twiglet regarding Vitek's lynch.
Seeing as at least 4 townspeople thought it was a good idea to lynch him so sudden is it inconcievable that 6 or even 7 townspeople all banded together to make one magnificent mistake?

And also with regard to SirPrimalform. Hmm I've just read it again and yeah it's pretty convincingly town. I don't see what the benefit of saying I-could-be-the-L-1-vote-right-here would be from the perspective of someone who wanted Vitek dead no matter what. He couldn't have anticipated Vitek's response.

Which leaves NMillar as my only leaning-nottown-read from the lynch.

Who've I got now?
TOWN
red_baron
robbeasy
Telika
A_Future_Pilot
SirPrimalform
twiglet
JMich
pazzer & damnation (but I can't remember why)

BAD
NMillar
Rodzaju

(Hm. Well it looks like I've forgotten somebody. Also that I am naïve or optimistic. I could believe that Future_Pilot, twiglet, JMich, Pazzer or Damnation could be our poisoner. (and I see no harm in assuming that there is a mafia and a poisoner for now))

So who? with myself and Vitek the list adds up to 13. who's my missing mafioso?

Krypsyn!

Drat.

He's on my town list as well.
Why do I think JMich Pazzer and Damnation are town leaning though? I suppose there's no harm in shifting them onto the mafia list.

so
BAD:
nmillar
Rodzaju
JMich
Pazzer
Damnation

And I tell you what. Rod has no right to be alive this late into a game if he IS town.

Vote for Rodzaju

I have a sort of plan to read over Rodzaju's first day again. I can't promise anything so if anyone else wants to have a go I would be happy to see what is made of it.
avatar
JoeSapphire: And I tell you what. Rod has no right to be alive this late into a game if he IS town.
I blame Vitek for stealing my "day 2 lynch" spot.....

;-}
avatar
JoeSapphire: Well actually I sort of agree with Twiglet regarding Vitek's lynch.
Seeing as at least 4 townspeople thought it was a good idea to lynch him so sudden is it inconcievable that 6 or even 7 townspeople all banded together to make one magnificent mistake?

...snip
Surely the logical thinking would be that if you have 4 confirmed townspeople on the lynch, then its MORE likely that one or two of the remaining are Mafia???

and - @Twilight - yes, we do have to consider that not everyone had even posted at that point, but in my experience , which is admittedly limited, Mafia players tend to pay more attention to a game than Town... so your point has weight, but not the weight you want it to have.
Seems i've got some sort of bug. Don't think i'll be able to continue. So will wish you all good luck.
avatar
Robbeasy: Surely the logical thinking would be that if you have 4 confirmed townspeople on the lynch, then
its MORE likely that one or two of the remaining are Mafia???
Well after taking out four townspeople we're expecting about 6 more towns, 3 mafia and one third-party, so one logical conclusion would be that it's most likely for the remaining to be more towns.

You could say that mislynches are generally fueled by mafia but everybody on this lynch pretty much had an equal part. After Rob cast his first vote each other player seemed to just say 'yes I agree vote' And some of those people MUST have been town. So if one town person can think that way there's nothing to suggest that the others have a non-town psychology.

I'm not saying that I believe that there are no mafias who joined in Vitek's lynch. Well I think nmillar is mafia and there he joined in the lynch you all saw.
But if it turns out that there were no mafias on the lynch I wouldn't be dumbfounded. It isn't inconceivable.