We lynch Rod. He turns up Mafia - I would say that would probably put Damnation in the clear, theres no way a Mafia would willingly associate himself with another Mafia player in such a way. Also it puts pressure on those who advocated NOT lynching him ie Telika....
We lynch Rod - he turns up Town. Instantly theres more pressure on his main opponent from Day 3 , nmillar. Also, we have to re-examine Damnation and Rod's flavour about him in a new light.
All well and good, and this would tip the voting reasons towards Rod IF we apply the "principle of indifference", assuming Rod's chances to be mafia or town are 50%. I think it's not the case. I think there's more chances for a member of my "town group" to be town, and more chances for a non-member to be scum. And I weight the calculation with that. The question being : past how much probability to be townie/mafia is it worth aiming for the indirect benefit of a mislynch rather than the direct benefit of a mafia lynch. Past how much probability does the "consolation prize" of a light over Rod's claim outweight the chances of him to be townie. This depends on people's read on Rod's (and, for instance, Nmillar's) affiliations.
My impression is that there are enough chances of losing a townie when lynching Rod to justify aiming elsewhere, and these chances are not small enough to be quite compensated by the possible gain on the snakebasket story.
As for pressure if Rod flips mafia, I honestly doubt I'll feel any. I'm more anxious about co-lynching a townie NMillar than about not having co-lynched a mafia Rodzaju.
I dont think it will be a mis-lynch, I think Rod slipped up with this mention of Damnation in his flavour. We don't have ANY real info to go on today - heres what I know and what is claimed :-
Im Town - Vanilla now, I hid behind red_Baron.
Red_Baron - Town. Was out and about when I hid behind him.
Telika - claims Poisoned day 1, cured for Day 2.
NO Mafia kills. Thats just given me a thought actually....hows this for a theory...Mafia for some reason have to wait for a couple of days to kill, some mechanic or other. How best to throw confusion and at the same time potentially clear one of your own while doing so? Claim to be poisoned, then miraculously recover the next day.
Anyway - onwards with claims
Rod - claims night flavour where he went for a wander, kicked over a basket with a snake in it, then recognised the house the basket was outside was Damnations.
Now that gives us very little to go on with (have i missed owt anyone?)
you could lynch me to verify my claim of town hider - but my flavour was corroborated by red_baron, and essentially why would i make it up? As Mafia, it would give me no protection, as it just makes me MORE likely to be lynchged at some point.
You could lynch red_baron, but same argument goes for him as for me - why would I say he's 100% Town and so am I - all on first day? Yes it could be a masterful Mafia ploy to give us a free run for a while, but essentially it would implode in our faces - one or other of us will be lynched to verify at some point, and if we were Mafia then its losing two members in one shot...
You could lynch Rod - for reasons I've given above I think he's the best option, im not repeating them here.
You could lynch Telika - poison story has the ring of truth, but could also be a Mafia ploy as we said to throw us all off the trail, and put a member in the clear, all in one hit. If Telika flipped Town, it wouldn't give us the info Rod would.
You could lynch nmillar - I personally think he could easiily be Mafia, and if Rod flipped Town he would be numero uno on the suspect list. But if he flips Town it doesn't give us a great deal. If he flips Mafia it doesnt give us a great deal of info on possible co-horts either.
You could lynch anyone, but no-one would give you info and possible leads like Rod would.