Honestly, it just seems like you were a lot more...not going to say laid back about it, but definitely calmer during Day 3. It just seems like something really got your blood pumping from the kills, but you aren't sure where to look or what you're really looking for. It's just an observation, I really don't have a good solid reason to vote besides that.

Well, for the sake of some completeness, and to give a view of my overall thoughts...I'll post some reads. Sadly, there's not TOO much to them though.

NFY - Came back in as a replacement during Day 3. Pushed a bit against Stoic, then me, then went away. Can't blame her for being quiet, but not much to go on since I can't work with previous data.

Red Baron - Not so active in recent days. RL reasoning, but the limited posts does make it hard to gauge any kind of gut feeling reliably, and not any evidence to post one way of another.

Rob - The claim makes a bit of sense, but as I asked for, I'd like to see more of the flavor from his tracking of Baz. His quietness in Day 2 makes me want o wait a bit to reassess before going yay or nay. His claim would be odd for scum depending on the next day, so I want to say leaning down, but I'm paranoid at this point.

SPF - Another person who flew under the radar during Day 2. Has been fairly calm and vocal since, and while I wouldn't say his arguments are perfect (was on Detlik lynch, but due to the facts it's hard to hold it against him), he's been fairly consistent and having well thought out posts. I wanna say leaning town, but again, paranoia has sorta set in.

Krypsyn - Like NFY, his replacing back into the game is hard, since he replaced in for Day 3, but unlike NFY, he has been more active. See above for most of my current feelings.

Stoic - Well, He's been an interesting case study as far as I'm concerned. A lot of his moves I don't get, his claim I don't understand, and the fact that he vanishes towards the end of the day, sorta bothers me. I want to step back because he's absent enough to get a prod, but at the same time...he's the one I have the most information on at this point.

I have really only done two things today: 1) Asked SirPrimalform to give solid reasons for his theories of game structure (just the flavor of the name wasn't enough for me), and 2) Called Robbeasy out for, what I feel, is really anti-town play.

As soon as SirPrimalform gave a decent reason, I dropped my case against him. As far as I am concerned, I got what I wanted out of the confrontation and it is all water under the bridge. Robbeasy was already my top scum suspect, and his anti-town role-claim has really done nothing to make me think differently.

Perhaps I have rubbed a few people the wrong way Today, but the basis of my play hasn't changed. If I have seemed more aggressive or 'desperate', it is only because I think time is running out for town. If I have to be a lightning rod to get people talking (and potentially tripping up), then so be it.

However, I will freely admit I that have been posting way too much in this thread. It always happens when I get into a debate/argument with someone in a forum; I just keep checking back for replies to my posts so I can offer a rebuttal. I think I'll take it easy for a few days and let other folks post. It should be interesting to see Red_Baron's, NFY's, and stoicsentry's take on all of this.

And, proof that I have tunnel vision when it comes to rebuttals, I didn't even check the rest of teh thread before posting. So, take Red_Baron's name off the list for people whom I am waiting on for substantial posts. We just need NFY and stoicsentry to get back.

Assuming the worst scenario, and my personal bet, of 4 town and 3 scum:

If we lynch town Today, and scum get two town targets Tonight, then we will be left with 3 scum (2-scum team and a 1-scum team) and a single town player. No matter what happens in that case, town has lost. Go ahead and run the permutations on your own, no matter who is lynched or who is killed the following Day/Night, town cannot win. If the 2-scum team gets very unlucky, the game might end in a stale-mate (with the other scum-team), but it will be impossible for them to lose outright.

If even one scum dies by tomorrow, by either lynch or nightkill, and two town are killed, then we will have have a 2-town vs. 2-scum scenario. If the 2-scum are on the same team, then town has lost. If the scum are on two different teams, then town still has a chance; but only if the two scum-teams kill each other on the following Night. If only a single scum-team is left, then they can just nightkill/no-lynch/nightkill and win. In this special case it is actually better for town to kill off another town in a lynch, ironically, because it will increase the odds of the scum targeting each other at night.

Another option is that there are only two total kills by Tomorrow. This could occur if there is no lynch, or if scum only manages to kill one person during the night (either because there is only one scum-team left, the both targeted the same person, or one team doesn't get their night-kill in). If the kills are 1-town and 1-scum, then it will be essentially a repeat of today, just with fewer votes needed to lynch. The potential voting bloc of 2-scum would be fairly balanced by the risk of two night-kills if there were two single person scum-teams left.

The last, and least likely, option is that only 1 person dies by tomorrow. If we don't get a lynch Today, and scum kills only one person at night (either by one team missing their vote, or by both scum-teams targeting the same person), then we will be left with either the same 3 scum vs. 3 town or the 2-scum team vs. 4 town (I think the possibility of the 2-person scum-team forgetting to night-kill an the single-person scum-team killing one of them as so far-fetched, I am not even going to entertain the possibility here). Anyway, you can run the permutation on those two out-comes yourself; I don't think this eventuality is very probably, so I am not going to spend any more time on it.

Well, I suppose there is the option that nobody dies because scum decides not to nightkill and we don't lynch anyone. Yeah... I don't think so.

If anyone sees any errors with this, let me know. I can't think of any power-roles that can significantly change these outcomes in town's favor. If you have a role like this, please don't say so in the thread. I shouldn't have to mention that, but role-claiming at unnecessary and bad times has happened in this thread before... (Robbeasy was the latest, but certainly not the first) Yep, all the more reason for me to take a break from the thread for a few days. I did enjoy going through the lynch/nightkill permutations though. It was a fun mental exercise, if nothing else. :)

EBWOP

I forgot two other scenarios in the post above.

1) We lynch scum Today, and the remaining two scum kill each other during their night actions. Game over, town wins.

2) By Tomorrow, 2 scum and 1 town have been killed. This means that there will be 1 scum and 3 town tomorrow. If town is lynched during that Day, then town loses. If there is no lynch, then town gets one more Day with 2 town vs 1 scum. If town lynches scum, then game over and town wins.

These are both very pro-town scenarios. However, I think they suppose quite a bit of luck for town. I include these scenarios just for completeness.

Lord we are so hamstrung with people being absent!

@Twilight - flavour for Baz had me noticing him sneaking about the tenting area, so i followed him. He approached a tent and called the occupant by name - Fisher. I left at that point. I was told he targetted GoJays with 'an ability', then of course we found out the next day that GoJays was dead.

@Krypsyn - funny in your scenarios how you didnt even think of the two very pro-town ones. If you were town surely you would be thinking of the ways Town could win first?? I know i sure would....

Not that much, though I do miss stoic and NFY.

But in any case did you already post all info from the other action since you just mentions in shortly - but oh well - not much happens if he was just sleeping. Anyway in regards to krypsyn - dunno how much I would want to judge from that assumption - he could just be a pessimist :P Still the theories setup seems to point at a neutral level for today meaning that if we chose right with whatever odds we have, things aren't that bad as I assume scum also have an interest in hitting the other team - mayhap an even larger interest in doing so due to both nightkill options.

Personally I would like to go back and check up on how Baz was acting towards other based on his encryption ability might show something, even though he is a somewhat veteran his ally might not be. But its doubtful if I get the time before I get home. Hence judging from the current game and the high risk that I wont have Internet for a large majority of the rest of my trip meaning that I need to make my belief count for the good, I'll vote.

The choice stands between Krypsyn and Rob (Twilightbard you are/close to were as said just a minor player in my list of suspects), SPF I for some reason have a positive mind about even with his latest quietness? In fact thinking about it he might be higher on the list than twilightbard - primarily due to his latest post where I as always don't like the ending with the game dead excuse as I call it, even with my own annoying absents :( But yea, it is still Rob and Krypsyn.

So what do I have against Krypsyn:

Well I don't like his posting way, but that was shown to be a case which he also had when he was proven town.. typically..and thus the wrong choice for my likely scum :S But this whole discussion with SPF didn't sit right with me. It comes of far to strong and he backs off very quickly. Actually, writing this didn't he also do that earlier as well, even in a case with me where I rather speedily went from leaning scum to leaning town if I recall correct? So hmm it might just be a case again of not liking the way he writes.

Rob: Well, he made a bit too much of the none posting stuff for my liking and there is a sense of general wrongness, which have me add odds end due to his claim. (Btw; I should mention that I don't have the slightest clue as to what I was trying to write in my former post, when I wrote "weak" :S - I was basically sleeping when I wrote it, so was positive surprised when I noticed that it still did make some sort of sense given that I couldn't remember anything of what I wrote). And the reason for this is as I mentioned earlier, that if I accept the claim I accept him as town.. and I don't accept him as town due to my beliefs.. so that in reverse means I suspects him as scum (or very unlikely some thirdparty).

Hmm, the votes go to Rob, as it makes more sense to vote on one I can't accept as town due to a claim than one I can't accept as town due to a posting he also performed while proven town.. (and there we have the problem of replacements I believe Twilightbard is also feeling). When I get Internet (or just know for certain I'll have a little longer access I'll read the newest and mayhap get time for the encryption decoding and reevaluate my vote).

vote Rob

Now lets see if the unlikely even that a lynch happens in speed, that I am right to pick as I did.

Another check in post I'm afraid (mostly to prove to myself (and you guys) that the academics here didn't eat me when I presented my paper...) I'll try and do some thread reading tonight and I should hopefully be back in the swing properly as of Saturday. Thank you very much for your patience!

That could only work if we lynched one from the team with two left. It's in our interests to do that anyway, since the scum can't control the lynch when there are two teams left.

I have attempted to contact him multiple times, and he's not showing any signs of life.
The issue with that is that modkilling him with so few players left is not a good idea, and replacing him would be cruel to the new player, really, as the game is fairly close to ending and the person would have to read the dreaded day 2 through...

I'll give stoic another prod.

Holy crap, just realised Stoic's been gone for over a month.

Read into it all you want; I simply forgot to mention them in that post. It makes sense when you think that all I have been doing in this thread is trying to convince town that we need to lynch scum today or our chances of winning are very slim. I forgot a couple of unlikely scenarios that didn't support my case; I came back 3 hours later when they occurred to me and posted them.

I will note that for someone that is accusing me of being too aggressive, you are seeming to resemble it yourself. You are much more active than you have been on previous Days. In fact, your actions are a bit more out of character than mine, historically speaking, from where I am sitting. This alone doesn't make you scum, of course, but I do like to point out hypocrisy where I see it.

:(

Sorry to hear about your presentation. If your attentions are elsewhere, I am sure we all understand.

I will note that we seem to be in a stalemate in this game (what's new), and we need some outside voices and viewpoints to get this game rolling again. With stoicsentry totally MIA, that leaves you as our only hope. No pressure or anything... ;)

It also gives them two night kills. I think it balances out. During the day a 2-scum faction will have a voting bloc advantage, however at night two 1-scum factions have the night-killing advantage. Regardless of which scum we kill, I am fairly certain that at least one town will die to a night-kill.

If there are two 1-scum factions, then there is only a 1/25 unweighted probability that scum would kill each other off during the night. There is a 2(1/5 X 4/5) = 8/25 unweighted chance that 1 scum and 1 town will die. There is a 16/25 unweighted chance that two town will die.

If there is only one scum faction, then there is a a 100% probability of 1 town dying during the night.

The odds actually show we would be better off at the start of Tomorrow if we make sure there is only 1 scum faction left, at least in terms of town numbers. We would then have to contend with the 2-scum voting bloc, however, which is, as you say, a disadvantage. Thus, I think that, all told, it is a wash.

Of course, I cannot factor in the biases certain people may have for one another (thus favoring certain targets of others), so this could skew the results one way or the other. I also didn't factor in the probability that any or all of the scum might be inactive during the night; I don't dismiss this possibility, I just have no idea what sort of probability to attribute it.

TL;DR: We just need to catch scum today, and I don't think it matters which group he/she is from.

Yeah, and it is annoying. We could vote to lynch him, but since he is inactive then it is a wasted lynch-vote. By the same token, scum have no reason to nigh-kill him either. Chances are he will stay in the game until the last Day, just serving to possibly make lynches more difficult for town. His existence as an inactive hurts town, but wasting a lynch to remove him might hurt town more.

I think I misread this before and my reply may not have made much sense. I read 'academics' as being people and that they bit you head off, or something similar, in your presentation. On rereading, I suppose you just meant you have been absorbed in your studies?

Oops.

Regardless, my conclusion still stands. Take all the time you need, your presentation is certainly more important that some forum game. However, I am sure i am not alone in wanting to hear your input. :)

Also... on another subject:

Since I am doing nothing and basically just waiting on a return phone call, I figured I would run the 2 scum faction vs one 2-scum faction night analysis if we assume that stoicsentry is inactive for good. I doubt scum would target stoicsentry at all, regardless of his faction, so it does change the numbers a bit.

Assuming stoicsentry is town:
If there are two scum factions going into this Night, the chances of them targeting each other as a 1/16 unweighted probability. The chance of 1 town and 1 scum dying has a 3/8 unweighted probability. The chance of two town dying has a 9/16 unweighted probability. If there is only one scum-team entering night, as I posted above, there is a 100% chance of one town dying from a night-kill.

Assuming stoicsentry is scum:
Regardless of which scum-team stoicsentry is on, this has the identical outcome has when there is only one scum-team going into the night. There is a 100% probability of 1 town dying. Stoicsentry won't night-kill, since he is inactive, but the other scum-member, regardless of scum team, isn't going to target him for a night-kill.

So, town is actually marginally better off at night if stoicsentry is left around as an inactive player (regardless of faction), at least in terms of the probability that town will survive until Tomorrow. Not having stoicsentry around to vote on lynches is still obviously bad for town, but at least there is this silver lining.

From what I understand, your first interpretation was correct. Thankfully the academics that she presented her paper to did not eat her.

I'm not sure whether I should change my vote to Rob or not. His claim serves no purpose. other than his stated goal of prompting conversation I suppose, but I sympathise strongly.

He's already on L-2 so I'll hope for a bit more discussion rather than put him straight to L-1.

The problem I have is, I find this to be bad form and I wouldn't like signals that it would send to the rest of us. I understand that the other two options aren't any better at this particular stage, but leaving him in the game as inactive serves no purpose and would probably do more to harm morale then anything else.