Okay, been reading up upon current events and I seem to have solved my issue with not knowing why Twilightbard was mentioned, he was roleblocked not a possible roleblocker, guess Krypsyn just managed to confuse me :P
This is my thoughts in order of reading (When I stumble upon something of note - since with my absence I am trying to post what I would have if I had been active)
First of this part of the theory by Baz: Hypothesis 3: GoJays is scum. TwilightBard and stoicsentry are town.
- Makes no sense. Stoicsentry has no reason to lie, therefore GoJays would have believed his claim. Blocking a vanilla townie is wasting a night action.
- Ruled out.
Actually it doesn't have to be rules out, as if GoJays was scum, then he would at this time also have a notion that someone is also going around killing, unless 1 faction have to kills, which I doubt. Hence he could be trying to find the other killer, be it SK, Vigilant (doubtful, since if town I guess that couldn't be stoic) or another faction.
Point being: GoJays doesn't necessarily have to believe the claim.
That said, I should note that I don't really feel that is what happened, as it seems kind of random.
I am still unsure as what stoic is talking about when he says "Vet", veterinarian? I don't follow.
But I have noted that people tended to come around to the idea that stoic is believable, but I must say that so far (as of page 103) I don't agree.
His defense have been to much a case of questions (repetition of a bad point among them often) and some odd statements.
Let me elaborate:
He notes in post 1515: "Only thing that jumps out to me about Jays is that he wasn't NK'd. Which leads me to believe 1 of 3 things: 1) mafia didn't believe his claim (I think they did believe it, so I'm ignoring this one), 2) Jays is mafia, or 3) mafia doesn't have any power roles.
I suppose 2 is possible. I'm thinking 3 is more likely, though. The way this game is going, it doesn't look like mafia needs any power."
So here he is saying that he believes that the mafia doesn't need any power - I don't really see it making sense, a mafia without a kill power at least would be rather useless.
Hence we come to his second post 1531:
"If I understand what JOAT is, then I don't think he's that... mafia seems to be quite powerful."
So I can judge this in two ways; First he says they don't need power, then that they are powerful - which is odd, but more likely I guess that its a case of bad wording. He means powerroles, and that fits with the fact that he don't believe a JOAT. As to why he believes that I don't have a clue, hence why I am pointing to this.
And the rest of that post of his is just a bunch of babble in my opinion, stating both opposites and arguing against it, making it nonsense. And he then once again restates (in another form) that GoJays should have roleblocked someone as well, which if the theory proposed about them both being scum is true, wouldn't be the case. Unless of course he blocked the same victim that they nightkilled, which I guess there could be some small merit to?
His only good point in my opinion is the one about it being a game where there wouldn't be much reason of taking risk for the mafia, but given that he have already been in focus - same with GoJays as NFY pointed out, it is a best an argument which is damn hard to gain much from.
Krypsyn makes a good point about the survivor, which I agree with since I played one in an earlier game and was lynched due to the argument of it being scum race, even after stating an intent not to win with the mafia.. I get the reasoning for why one would be against the survivor, but as the mafia can kill, I would personally consider the survivor to gain more benefit from sticking with town trying to oust the mafia, but heck they are neutral in my head.
Along those lines I see why Krypsyn has the point about 3 scum one SK in the same post (1536), but given that survivor is neutral I ain't entirely sure I follow the logic, we could for instance still be dealing with 2 factions as well if that amount of anti-town was to be noted. But one more or less doesn't really matter for now.
Twilightbard makes some points a I agree with, in regards to arguments from Stoic, though I am not entirely sure I like the wording of many of his posts, seems unlike the Bard I seen before.
But that brings me to Robbeasy's post 1540. Huh was my first reaction upon reading. While I believe that stoic's defense haven't given of a specific scummy vibe,
it surely haven't given of a innocent vibe either as Robbeasy seems to think and with the addition that Robbeasy doesn't believe Gojays as much is very odd from my viewpoint, I would find the role blocker more believable than the town vanilla receiving a pm about role block.
I get why he have a feeling about Twilightbards post, as noted before I feel them a little unlike the usual style I have tied to him, but I am far more interested in the switch of targets based on a defense I don't see serves as a proper argument for that switch.
Hence while reading his post I came up with the following theory about what occurred:
GoJays forgot the claim (given that I in this scenario have him assigned as town)
He roleblocks Stoic (who is given the role of 1 of the scum)
His partner (which I have placed as Robbeasy is the one performing the kill)
Then stoic admits to being roleblocked in an attempt to control the action and gain something from it
The partner Rob, tries first to stick it to Rob, while voicing suspicion at stoic, then when enough time have passed and other posts of possible devious intend have risen, focus changes to Twilightbard and thereby readily accomplishing two things: Get stoic conveniently "confirmed" as town and kills Twilightbard who is likely to have a powerrole (+ have had problems with suspicions before).
Problems: I dunno if they could really plan ahead or at least act well together like this without possible discussions about it, but as a counter to this, I trust that Robbeasy is skilled enough to pull something like it off, even without conversation with stoic.
Now, this is my view as of post 1545, I will continue with the rest - doing the same as above and then put it together to my current view. So more coming