I don't have much right now, except for a few things:

@Baz: Dude, you're a braver soul then I at this point. When I did my reread in the middle of Day 2 I basically did everything to distract myself.

@NFY: I honestly think we'll find more by looking at the lynchwagon then we will at Krypsyn's reads. With two factions you can argue in circles about why he was killed and how it confirms his reads without actually getting anywhere.

@Detlik: You can still contribute even if you can't vote, FOS works well in your case. But staying quiet really doesn't help anyone, especially when every voice counts.

Hmmmmm, I wanna take a look at the wagon that had formed on Damuna now, just to see who was on it, maybe someone who was on both wagons is mafia? I don't know, I don't have any actual information.

This is getting desperate, sirs.

There are 10 of us left alive: if we mislynch today, with presumably 2 kills tomorrow night.... worst case scenario we'll be down to 7 by day 4...
- If it's a 4-man mafia, it's game over - 4/7 scum = majority.
- If it's a 3-man mafia + SK, that's also game over - 1 mislynch = 6 left alive = 3/6 scum majority.
- If it's 3M/1SK and we DON'T lynch, that's still game over - 7-2= 5; 3/5 scum majority.

This doesn't account for us actually having a vig, instead of an SK, who takes a mafioso out (unlikely), or GoJays blocking one of the kills, or if there are multiple teams there could be some inter-killing to balance it out a bit. Could someone double-check my numbers there? I'm horrible with logic.

Rodzaju was an odd choice - I'd have thought a double-voter would have been a handy for the mafia. Unless he was targetting the wrong people with it.

@TB: surely it doesn't matter if we're dealing with two factions or not, in the grand scheme of things?

Well that was something that completely fucked with my whole theory of scum targets.. :( In fact I am pretty much still in somewhat of a shock and wtf I was so damn certain I had a good suspect and nothing, bah. I do like that my initial trust of NFY's former body proved true. I apparently don't have my usual luck.

And as what NFY have pointed out, I am tempted to say a bit more about what I mean with the above.

Also in regards for back-up theories, I am a bit blank, so hmm I guess a bit of clearing up information is needed at least give us some sort of moral ground here.

It's a huge matter of wine. Take me for example, since I know Krypsyn was suspicious of me. First off, if I was Mafia, killing him would obviously lead to everyone looking at me weird, so it's not something worth doing. But on the other hand, knowing that everyone thinks this way, I could have done it to make people think otherwise. Keep this going for a while cause the pattern could never end.

Tack on another faction, and trying to examine kills for motives becomes harder, because we're not sure who did it, or why, the whole idea may have been throw suspicion on someone Krypsyn was suspicious of in the first place.

From Game 9, could be 2 2-person Mafias as well, just to add to the math nightmare. I'm honestly trying to figure out how this is all working, but it looks like both anti-town sides haven't figured out who the other is at this point either.

That's covered under 4M. Although it goes in town's favour if they NK eachother. That post was all about worst-case scenarios though.

...hm. That's twice so far in the very few posts of D3 that you've mentioned multiple mafias as though it was a fact:
In #1450 quoted above it's the same thing (bolded).

I appreciate your point about the WIFOM involved in looking at dead reads though, that's something that hadn't occured to me...

I'm assuming they just killed Rod because of the double vote. That makes sense from their perspective.

I still feel like I know nothing. Between all the replacements it's hard to even remember who is who.

I know we're all trying to figure out whether there's a serial killer and all that. Is it generally considered good for town for the existence of a role to be made public or just in this case (that of a serial killer) only?

Would someone be willing to compile a list of the causes of death?

Nevermind, I did it:

N1:

1. nmillar. Town watcher. Vivian Slaughter, bassist and vocalist of Gallhammer.
Cause of death: Beaten by a guitar-like object.

2. Vitek. Town vanilla. Robert Lowe, vocalist of Candlemass.
Cause of death: Stomped to death.

N2:

1. Rodzaju. Survivor, Double Voter. Peter Gabriel & Mark Hutson. Solo artist and vocalist.

Cause of death: Throat ripped out, mic sticking out of his mouth.

2. Kryspn. Lord Angelslayer. Town vanilla. Bassist and vocalist.
Cause of death: Drowning.

Uh... these deaths do not look alike.

First of all, from day to day they aren't consistent: beaten by guitar, stomped to death vs. throat ripped out, mic sticking out of his mouth and drowning. So that's confusing.

I thought maybe because of the instrument they play but nmillar and kryspn both played bass and had different COD's.

Geez Damnation, I thought there would be a clue in there somewhere.

So I just realized, as a survivor, Rodzaju was not necessarily on town's side, correct? I guess I misunderstood before.

So does this suggest that there's a second faction of bad guys or not? I mean if they were going for town I guessed they missed, indicating that they do not actually know who town is (thus there's another faction), on the other hand it makes sense you want to take out the double voter either way so...

Personally I think it doesn't change much - the point is to eliminate all anti-town.

IMHO, for what it's worth, the death scenes you posted point to two parties: the one who kills the target with their own 'instrument' (guitar, drumstick, throat) and an opportunist (stomping, drowning). All I think we can safely take from this is that, for balance reasons, there are probably 4 anti-town people out of the 10 left alive. Hence the pickle I believe we're in.

Wiki says Survivor play is just that: all about surviving, regardless of team. So that doesn't make him any less townie.

((Incidentally, and out-of-game, I'm well aware I'm the 4th replacement here. I was thinking of "borrowing" Quad's avatar if that would help...!))

More importantly, it doesn't make him any more townie, either.

I've been running the numbers in my head yesterday, and I think we have an SK in the house, together with a 2-man mafia. That's about the only combination that balances out, I think.
There's some more theorising I want to do, but I really need to reread (and I'm not looking forward to it at all).

NotQuadrAlienYet, that's a good idea about the avatar, but it would propagate back to your posts as NotFrenchYet the Name Cop resulting in the same amount of confusion.
NQAY doesn't quite roll of the tongue, though… How about NQUAY? Or N.QUAY?

I'm getting the feeling that it's 2 mafia and just 1 serial killer. For no apparent reason. It seems just as likely to be 2 mafia and 2 mafia, right? I don't know why just goin with my gut here.

Then again my gut has told me that Damuna and NFY were scummy so that means disregard everything above.

In fact, I think it's about time to re-think everything entirely under the assumption that "everything I thought I knew was wrong."

Oh and FWIW, someone role blocked me last night. So I can at the very least confirm that there is a role blocker present.

Sorry, one more thing. Would someone be so kind as to make a list of:

1. The remaining players.
2. Who has replaced who has replaced who?

I have quoted (in my notepad) both of Damnation's votecounts for the lynches. Sad thing to find out is that it LOOKS like the only two people to vote for both townies during these lynches were myself and Rodzaju. And since Rodzaju was eliminated, and since I had that spat with NFY, I sure as heck look like target #1 right now. If I'm going down, I'm going down swinging.

Then again, I forget who replaced who replaced who so it's hard to be sure there wasn't another person (character, really) that did the same. So I'd like to see a list if someone has it.

You may wish to check the first post, it's udpated whenever someone is killed or replaced.