Alright, got some things gathered up, and doing a reread, I think I've got something with Muttly. I'm going to start with one of his reads from early/mid day 1.
So, if anyone is interested heres what I currently think on everyone...
01- Nmillar - Would be comfortable lynching on lurking.
02- JoeSapphire - Essentially the same for lurking.
03- Jefequeso - Seems like he lurks for the most part as well, but would not be comfortable lynching yet as he at least posts on occasion.
04- Muttly13 - Why, thats me!
05- Robbeasy - fine lynching for lurking.
06- Orryyrro - same here.
07- Itai.sharim - and here.
08- Crazybear - felt he leaned town simply based on his reaction.
09- Vitek - Odd nmillar vote, I am sure both he and Zchinque would claim it was for prodding.
10- Red Baron - no read here as yet.
11- Peanut Brittle - no read here either.
12- Zchinque - Again, I think the nmillar thing is odd. Same as Vitek I am sure he would claim prodding as his reason for voting.
13- Stuart9001 - Felt he was leaning town as well. The grab for anything to move the game alone felt very familiar, like me in game 8!
All that said, I am never really comfortable lynching for lurking alone. But, since this is day one and somebody needs to go for something, I guess its as good as any other reason.
Now, looking at this strikes me as a bit odd, especially as an early day 1 post. 5 counts of people he'd be comfortable for lynching for lurking. 1 count of someone he claims lurking, but wouldn't feel comfortable lynching. Judging from the time period involved (this post was on December 21st, the game started on the 14th), I'm feeling something dubious about this.
The note that the vote on nmillar is going to be claimed to be prodding by Z and Vitek sounds like he's trying to brush off the reasons as an excuse to make people look at this harder. Crazybear and Stuart town leaning, and Red Baron and Peanut as unknown.
The reads strike me as odd here. So willing to put 5 people up for lynching for lurking, no reads on 2 people, the only reads on 2 people being about their odd vote on someone he's comfortable lynching for lurking, 1 person that he's not comfortable lynching, but still files him as a lurker. And 2 town reads...
The Crazybear lynch is nearly impossible to properly analyze considering it's a very basic policy lynch. I do think it's worth noting though that he did point out Crazybear not saying anything. Interesting though to see that muttly never really commented on the lynch itself, and definitely did not vote for it.
I DO find 429 very interesting, especially how he turned an analysis on the Z kill into an attack on Baron, when itai was first to vote, both of them essentially returning their votes on their Day 1 targets (Itai not even removing his vote on Stuart at the time of the lynch).
I find it hard to put the blame for a policy lynch on the hammerer at the time of a close deadline. It doesn't make them town, and it doesn't reveal them as scum, they were simply there at a time when the choice was, Hammer or No-Lynch, and in that case, I don't think many people would choose No-Lynch.
Muttly calls his argument the 'First solid scum-tell of the game', when Vitek turns around and notes that it seems like a big overreaction (and honestly, I feel the same way, it's also an easy way to accumulate votes on someone).
As for Stuart being the easiest lynch...I think you're giving the fact that he was almost lynched more credit then it's due. Yes, he was at the time very unhelpful for town which made it hard to get a real read on him, but I would hesitate to call him an easy lynch.
And who revoted him within HOURS of hammering a confirmed townie and D2s start
I find this to be unnecessary, and really odd. A lot of us will put up votes, cause pressure, and whatnot even at the beginning of the day, even if they hammered the final person. Revotes aren't uncommon either, so this line of logic, falls apart, it feels exaggerated, like the rest of the argument against Red.
Honestly, I think that's the major point of that entire case. It's been overexaggeration vs. overreaction. The argument and pressure goes in circles until well, this happened. But honestly, except for other people having to ask questions to try to get other opinions, Muttly has been completely focused on lynching Baron all damn day.
I have two conclusions to draw from this, and one of those is him being Mafia, which I fully believe he is.
Pre-Edit: Damn forum software keeps finding errors between my capital letters in things. *Grumbles*