After again seeing how bookwyrm is trying to out the Mason's I have no issue moving my vote to him from HSL. Anyone who thinks the Mason's need to claim is scummy IMO.

Out the mason's what?

Joking aside, I agree.

I said I wonder about the motivation, not the argument itself; that, I both understood and am behind.

My point is that anyone can make this argument, and it doesn't automatically clear them as town, and least of all a slot with your record, as there's nothing to go back to.

Assume you're scum. Wouldn't this be great cover for you, even more so if you're an original scum with a conversion shot? You get the town points for making this play early on, plus stay hidden to go about your nasty business at Night; with the record of your slot, nobody would be any wiser.

I'm not sure I follow how scum flips themselves are unlikely to contribute to clearing up the game state. Could you elaborate a bit?

If you're actually scum-reading me, then you should be able to state the reason(s) why you do so, and allow me to address your accusations. Stating "I scum-read them" without giving reason(s) provides perfect cover for any scum placing a vote, especially in case of a mis-lynch, don't you think?

As for the generally being scum-read - who all does this "generally" include, and, more importantly, what reason(s) have been given by them? I've got a few comments/arguments here, but I'm curious to hear what you have to say.



@Krypsyn - I'm extremely surprised, almost to the point of being shocked, that you replied in a straightforward manner; won't deny that it makes me quite uneasy, more so after your post #1035.

Can you give a couple of specific examples how he smells funny? Also, when and why did you change your mind about your read?


I said I think I understand based on your post #1035, and already pointed you to it as to why; I got the impression that you were leaning (a bit?) more to the scum-side for me due to the lack of the usual (expected?) "scum-pings", yet not quite as confident as you'd like to, and switched to Leonard03 because of a combo of that and you having a stronger/clearer scum-read on him (though you never said what you were scum-reading him for). But what you're saying here reads to me as more than being just "a bit lost", and if you've moved, or are moving, from that position as much as you make it sound here, then I don't understand.

And yes, the bit about a No-Lynch is indeed very out of character for you. As is, I think, being (appearing?) this conflicted, but then again, you weren't in any of the cult games I've followed/played. Was any of the older ones (pre-game #23) a cult setup that you happened to be in?


[emphasis added]

I've not reread Bookwyrm627 yet, but the bit I highlighted was discussed to quite some extend on D2, so I'm going to ask you - what motivation and goal do you think would scum-Bookwyrm627 have to do what he did?

And speaking of him:

While I've thought of and keep in mind the case scum hiding among the possible Masons, do you think that potentially being unable to validate the last Mason (I assume you mean D4 and onwards?) is a bigger concern than practically handing scum a list of safe conversion choices to pick from for N3? If so, why?



I understand the last part, but I'd think that a townie noticing a change in behaviour that made them think he was scum would have said something. The chance for a viable wagon may not have looked promising on Wednesday evening (btw, that was around 48hrs before actual deadline), but if your hunch kicked in earlier in D2 (you said it was after mchack claimed that you noticed it), there was (more than) enough time to draw attention to what you observed, and have others look into it.



Well, you and the departed Mason fiercely locking horns didn't exactly help, did it now?

You'll probably get over it.

Likely.

Which time? *shrug* Doesn't matter; I already answered it. Midway through Day 1, and after Day 2 ended, respectively.

My therapist suggested I try new things and be more open about my feelings. Or, perhaps that was just the voices in my head; I don't think I actually have a 'therapist'.

No idea. I try not to get too involved in my own life. Boundaries, you know.

Agreed. And good thing, too, as me being cleared as town wouldn't be a good thing for town, now would it?

Scum flips from people who're currently read by scum as more than one of "potentially town", "potentially mason", "potentially opposing scum (original or converted)" would clear up the game state for the other scum team. Scum flips from people who scum are already all but certain about, would limit this effect. Based on the voting record, you're the only one to fit this category. (And sure, I have some doubts about my scum read of you, and can tell myself stories and explanations that'd make you town, in which case it'd absolutely suck to lynch you due to this. But I've learned to opt for the simpler solution.)

There aren't slips or mistakes to point to, but I've felt your questioning and followthrough to have been lacking. I know you as much sharper when you're town.

Everyone who has voted for you. (Tellingly, that didn't include dedo.)

That's a useful question, and I'll have to do my due diligence there. Thanks.

Just come in from work, don't have an awful lot of time but this caught my attention:

How exactly do we, as town, know who scum think are scum?
And how would scum know who the other scum team is?

This seems like very dubious reasoning...

So I've been doing a re read of dedo to see if there was anything in his interactions that stands out.

And really, looking back, he seemed to play it safe all game. Other than the clash with mchack (where he had solid support) D1 he didn't really put forth any scum reads that weren't just following someone else's lead.

This post (and the follow up one which I've combined into one quote) is possibly the most enlightening, though he made it just before the end of D2 so it may have been planted in case he was NK'd or attempted and failed a conversion.


So, a few things that stand out from that;

He town reads me and Bookwyrm. I know I'm not his buddy, but there is a chance Bookwyrm is. That being said, dedo is a smart player, so would he blatantly town read his buddy in a post like that? I'm not sure he would.

His reads on ZFR and Krypsyn are both a bit wishy washy, could well be cover for a buddy so he's not drawing attention to them but not ruling out bussing them if required.

While he's not overly enthusiastic about HSL's lynch he doesn't seem to bothered. Could be distancing or genuine.

But the part I find most intriguing is what he didn't write. At least not at first.

Was leaving gogtrial off the list the first time a slip? Had he forgotten to write something about his buddy and then had to quickly correct it in case anyone questioned it?

Which unfortunately leaves us with pretty much the same pool of suspects we started with. He specifically leaves flub and trent out but I don't see either of them being an original scum and I don't think flub was recruited N1 so I'm not worried about that.

Will try and do a re read of Bookwyrm and Hyper next to see if I can spot anything interesting.

Thank you everyone for the prayers and well wishes. I'm on the mend and feeling better.


Please explain this to me. Are you a mutant??


It's the only way I can do it....

No time to finish my catch up now, so a few summary items from glances in the thread. Some of these have already been touched on.

-I'm glad to hear that you are okay, Flub!

-I'd say the cyborgs killed mchack, while the mutant killed Dedo. Any other possibility is highly implausible.

-Some people are suspecting me as scum. I'm curious on which team you would place me, and when I was on that team.

-Can someone lay out the case for HSL being scum?

-Mchack's death has basically confirmed the mason/not-mason pools. If the last person in the mason pool is scum, then that team already knows exactly who the masons are; there is no mystery (and was none by the end of D2). Come to think of it, that might be an indicator that all of the cyborgs are in the non-mason team; the mutant wouldn't have been ready to start killing masons yet.

****************************************
There isn't much happening on the bridge of the Von Braun today. A few accusations here and there, but mostly everyone sits around staring at each other. Has the death of the Hacker sapped the will of the crew of travelers? Or is SHODAN or THE MANY ... or both ... gaining a foothold, but are keeping a low profile to hide that things are worse than they seem? Or are they alone now and things are better than they seem and THAT's why they keep a low profile? Who knows. An uneasy silence fills the bridge as the hours tick by. Or do they? The clock on the screen of the helm consistently shows 'ERROR'. So who knows if time even still exists, out here in the void of the endless nothingness of space.
*****************************************

Are we? The scum team with fewer players always has to lynch with town in order to avoid a loss. If all town are dead with the scum teams tied, then nobody wins.
If the scum don't choose to give the other scum a win, then town can win. If scum DO choose to throw the game for the other scum, then we can't win regardless.

-----

Here's a case scenario that sees Town reduced in numbers as fast as possible. Anything that deviates from this probably just gives town more power; I haven't tried to map all the possible paths (yet).

Assume the Masons out themselves AND we lynch vanilla town.
N3 starts with:
2 mason
3 vanilla
2 cyborg
1 mutant

Assume both scum successfully convert (this step has the largest number of possible branches, based on scum actions), so Day 4 starts
2 mason
1 vanilla
3 cyborg
2 mutant

The town and mutants have to work together and lynch a cyborg, so lynching a cyborg is almost guaranteed. Masons hold their votes and can dictate where everyone else votes. Mutants might have to out themselves to avoid being lynched.

Cyborg lynched, Night 4 starts:
2 mason
1 vanilla
2 cyborg
2 mutant

Assume that both masons get shot (though with the conversions gone, town deaths are mostly interchangable), then Day 5 starts:
1 vanilla
2 cyborg
2 mutant

IF the vanilla helps lynch scum, then Night 5 starts:
1 vanilla
1 scum A
2 scum B

Scum A has to shoot Scum B or lose, so Scum B win if they shoot Scum A while everyone loses if Scum B shoot vanilla.

So instead vanilla No Lynches for Day 5, so Night 5 starts:
1 vanilla
2 cyborgs
2 mutants

If both scum shoot the vanilla, then everyone loses (2v2). Following that thought, whichever scum team does NOT shoot opposing scum will lose (No lynch occurs the next day with 1/1/2, and then we're back to the above Night that had 1/1/2).

Therefore, both scum shoot opposing scum.

Day 6 starts:
1 vanilla
1 cyborg
1 mutant

Similar to Day 5, the Vanilla just No Lynches. Scum that shoots vanilla loses, so scum have to shoot each other.

------------

Alternate path, starting from D4:

Day 4 starts:
2 mason
1 vanilla
3 cyborg
2 mutant

Assume the last vanilla is lynched, so N4 starts:

Night 4 starts:
2 mason
3 cyborg
2 mutant

Mutant has to shoot Cyborg.

If the Cyborgs kill a Mason, then Day 5 starts per the 1/2/2 above.

Assume the Cyborg kills a Mutant, then Day 5 starts:
2 mason
2 Cyborg
1 Mutant

Anything but a Cyborg lynch lets the Cyborgs win.

So Night 5 starts:
2 mason
1 Cyborg
1 Mutant

If the masons are both shot, then everyone loses (1v1 scum).
If one mason is shot, then the scum that shot the mason lose (the other scum shot them).
If both scum are shot, then town wins.

All this is good, but

a) I still don't see what benefit both masons claiming does. If the masons don't claim then your calculations still hold true. With the added benefit that scum might misconvert town.

b) When you get converted your win condition changes. I don't want to get recruited by a losing scum team, but if the masons give themselves out, there is a good chance of this happening.
Since you're too good a player not to miss this. So could you please tell me what are you counting on? That you won't get recruited? That you will get recruited, but your scum team wins? Are you scum, hoping to get an easy recruit?

Has anyone considered that Hunter might have tried to convert Dedo on N1? That would certainly have helped the mutant NK accuracy last night.

No order of preference at the moment.

I've already stated most of my concerns about ZFR on Day 2. Krypsyn has been too under the radar, putting down incredibly little of substance.

I also didn't like some of their voting patterns from Day 2. "Follow the masons" is simply too easy cover, and doesn't require them to think or have to put out reasons of their own.

Having done some of the math (see #1092), I'm currently in a state of "Don't-give-a-boop" about the conversions, except in so far as one might pull me to a team stuck in a losing situation. Since I've already been completely outed as Not-Mason, then being converted is also completely out of my control, so it is of little concern to me in that regard as well.

As far as I can see, as this point town gets nothing but benefit from clarity on who is aligned with whom. If the masons confirm each other, then absolutely no one can push for their lynch for the rest of the game. If a mason dies before that confirmation, then we're going to have to pick who to believe if the two claim against each other.

Hm. Dedo only ever voted for Mchack and Leonard, both of whom have already flipped town.

Maybe I need to check the circumstances of the other wagons, since he never voted for Adalia or me either, and we both had significant wagons.

It removes some chance of lynching erroneously if we lose another mason, especially if the last person in the mason pool is scum. It also lets any surviving masons dictate a lynch if town loses its super majority.

If the scum don't have a member in the mason pool, then they still don't know if that final player is on the other scum team. If scum DO have a member in that mason pool, then they already know exactly who the masons are. The biggest threat to scum conversions is other scum, and mason confirmation doesn't actually change that equation.

I'm not counting on anything. It is completely out of my control, so I'm just not going to worry about it. After Mchack's claim and death, is there any chance at all that anyone would even remotely believe that I might have the vaguest possibility of being a mason?

On Day 1, I tried to put up the image of being a mason trying to stay undercover. If scum believed it, then they have a greater chance of failing a conversion. If they NK'd me for being a mason, then a real mason didn't take the hit. If they didn't believe the claim at all, then no harm done.

I don't want to be converted by a losing scum team for the rather obvious reason that it places me on a losing team. :P


And really, if you truly think that outing the masons gives scum better odds of converting, then please lay out the scenario(s) and show how that is the case. I'm listening.

Well. At this point I'll just have to trust masons to do the right thing regarding their coming out. I'm sure they're smart enough to analyze arguments for and against.

@Bookwyrm, HSL, adalia, neither of you have made a vote so far. Are you waiting for the 48h deadline again so the time pressure helps us make another "good" decision this day?